Higher EU milk output expected
Based on current cow numbers and fodder availability, without extra investments in cows and buildings, and assuming no milk price changes, dairy farmers and co-operatives expect 15% to 20% more milk to be produced in Denmark; 20% more in the Netherlands, 10% more in Belgium, 15% more in France, 10% more in Italy, 10% more in the Czech Republic, 25% more in Slovakia, 10 to 20% more in Hungary, 25% more in Latvia, and by a small percentage in Germany.
However, these early predictions are subject to the changing trends in the EU milk supply, demand and price, and in feed costs.
Predictions of how the elimination of quotas will proceed were given by ICOS Director of Policy Martin Varley at the annual conference of the co-ops’ organisation.
He said dairy farmers and co-ops in nearly all member states favour a transition period of five to seven years before quotas are eliminated.
This could fit well with the European Commission’s plan to have transition measures agreed in 2008 and implemented from 2009 onwards.
This process will start in three months time with the publication by the Commission of a Green Paper in July inviting the dairy industry to participate in consultation and debate.
Commission proposals on how to dismantle milk quotas would follow next spring, for decision and implementation later in 2008 and in 2009. Mr Varley indicated how dairy farmers and co-ops will push for different outcomes.
Current country positions on the future of quotas are largely inconclusive, other than the lack of support for cross-border transfer or sale of quotas, favoured only by the Netherlands and Slovakia, and regarded as politically difficult by the Commission.
Support is also limited for the option of filling the EU wide milk quota before national superlevies apply.
The option most widely supported by farmers and co-ops so far is a gradual quota increase each year. This is favoured by Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Czech, Slovakia, Latvia and Slovenia, but is opposed by France, Portugal, Austria, Finland, Hungary and Lithuania. There is also early support for gradual reduction in the superlevy to prepare for the end of quotas, from the Netherlands, Belgium, Portugal, Spain, Finland, Czech and possibly Italy.
Countries are divided on how quickly to scrap quotas, with the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands, Germany and the Czech Republic favouring the end in 2015, but Italy, Spain, Hungary, Slovakia, Belgium, Austria and Finland hoping for a later end to milk production control.
