Uncertainty over future among young dairy farmers
But there was uncertainty about their future among many of the 1,000 dairy farmers who attended the conferences, despite the positivity of the conference speakers.
They painted a picture of a farm enterprise ideal for a driven young person, very efficient, prepared to continue to scale up production, and control milk production costs.
They said dairy farming in Ireland can be the most competitive within the EU as quota restrictions fade to a memory, but the new era will require all stake holders to work together to develop a stronger industry. Policy changes at EU level, and efficient processing, to secure a higher margin for all in the industry, will also be needed.
Between 1990 and 2004 the cost of farming inputs increased by 13.6%. Specialist milk producers managed their costs increase to 9.7%, but their net margin increased by less than 5%. And a WTO scenario is projected of milk price coming under significant pressure, while costs continue to increase annually.
It’s a scenario which will force farmers to decide where their long-term future lies, according to one speaker. As it is unlikely that-part time dairy farming will survive more than one generation, it is probable that labour and land availability will dictate herd size, the farmers were told. That means that within 10 years, herd size could range from 80 to 150 cows, all one person operations with family labour, by necessity. Family income would have to be almost 50% higher than it is now, to maintain current spending power. Total entrants to agricultural training in 1994 was 1,768; in 2006, it’s only 848.
The 210,331 farmers in 1960 had fallen to 141,527 by 2003, and the projection for 2015 is 106,000.
There is still enthusiasm among young people who want to be dairy farmers, but there must be a better sharing of the returns from Irish milk, or there won’t be milk to process.
