British sheepmeat production to fall
The expectation is for a smaller lamb crop in 2006 and an increase in ewe lamb retention rates, leading to a reduction in new season lamb. A further decrease in the breeding flock is anticipated for this year as producers adjust to decoupling.
Arising from the drop in production, the MLC predicts an increase of 7% in imports, following a drop of 8% in imports last year. Along with continued imports of mutton from Ireland, New Zealand will continue as the largest supplier of sheepmeat to the market at around 115,000 tonnes. An increase in the supply of lamb meat from non-EU countries is also expected to contribute to the market, but this could be tempered by the effect of any spread of foot-and-mouth disease in South America.
With lamb continuing to be more expensive for the housewife than other meats in Britain, it is expected that consumption will drop by about 3%, marking a continued decline in consumption of sheepmeat for the third consecutive year. Demand for sheepmeat is being affected by more competitively priced beef coming on to the market this year. Forecast consumption of sheepmeat in 2006 at 347,000 tonnes will be the lowest since before 2003.
The forecast of the MLC is that Britain will also export about 81,000 tonnes amounting to 4% more lamb in 2006. France will account for up to 75% of exports for the year.
Irish lamb production year to date is slightly lower than the same period last year with just under 1,000 head less being supplied to export plants.
