Irish Feed and Grain Association big EU grain supply and low prices
She said expectations of a 30m tonnes increase are reflected in UK futures prices e20 per tonne behind last year. "It is hardly surprising then that first indications of dried feed barley prices are varying from €117 to €120 per tonne, depending on the location", she said.
She said surplus EU barley will be offered into intervention, and will trade at a discount to wheat, if not up to intervention standard.
"Export refunds will be needed to at least offset the very real and rising cost of freight, as EU grain is struggling to maintain its competitiveness into its traditional markets at present. The next few weeks will be crucial for the markets, as everyone watches for a now expected drop in quality, that will lower marketability of European grains and put further pressure on the feedstuffs market."
"Finally, it is important to remember that the Tariff Rate Quota allocations of wheat and barley limit the flood of more competitive imports to the EU. However, until the full quota has been shipped, these Black Sea grain prices will continue to be another factor putting pressure on the price levels of feed grain within the EU".
She said Irish malting barley quality and yields were excellent so far. In contrast, malting barley quality has suffered from the bad weather in the UK. There were also reports early this week of weather hitting milling wheat quality in the UK, resulting in it being diverted for feed. This, and big wheat yield increases across the EU-25, Russia and the Ukraine, could drive down feed grain prices.
However, despite a near record wheat crop, world stocks will remain at a low level not seen for nearly 30 years. With global maize stocks also staying at a 30 year low, grain prices worldwide could dip after a bumper harvest but recover as the year goes on.
Soya bean stocks, on the other hand, are approaching their highest level in 18 years.
