Meat and milk intake to increase annually
Delegates were told that consumption in the developing world will increase by 3% per year between now and 2020. In contrast, annual consumption of meat and milk in developed nations will grow at less than 1% in the same period.
Christopher Delgado, of the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington, said the explosion in consumption in the developing world is being driven by billions of people diversifying primarily starch-based diets into small amounts of milk and meat.
“By 2020, annual demand for meat in developing countries will be over 70 million tonnes higher than today and annual demand for milk will be more than 150 million tonnes higher,” he said.
Mr Delgado said while the growth in consumption will be spread throughout the developing world, China, India and Brazil, because of their size, will continue to increase their dominance of world food markets for livestock products.
“In 2020, China will account for one-third of world meat consumption while India will consume 20% of the world’s milk and milk products.
Mr Delgado said an additional 60 million steers will be required by 2020 to meet the increased demand for beef in developing countries. Increased demand for mutton will require an additional 200 million sheep while 30 million more dairy cows will be needed to satisfy the extra demand for milk and milk products.
He said that meat and milk production increases in developing countries will largely match the big consumption increases. However, he projected that meat exports from Latin America to Asia will soar.
Mr Delgado said world production of cereals is projected to increase by 300 million tonnes.
Developing countries will continue to be massive importers of cereals for animal feed and will have a net import requirement of 200 million tonnes per year by 2020.
He predicted that world prices for feed grains in 2020 will be at the same level, in real terms, as the average of recent years. Meat prices will fall by around 3% and milk prices will fall by 8%.
Mr Delgado stressed that the price falls would be substantially higher without the ‘livestock revolution’.
The International Grassland Congress, which is being hosted by Ireland for the first time, is being attended by 1,500 delegates from 94 countries and continues at UCD until Friday.