Don’t accept low prices, grain growers advised
Jim O'Mahony, chief tillage advisor with Teagasc, said this week that winter barley yields from 20,000 hectares are back by at least one tonne per hectare on last year.
Yields of winter oats from 10,000 hectares are relatively better than the winter barley, but are still slightly back on 2001.
The harvesting of the two major crops, spring barley and winter wheat, is now getting under way. Early indications, as already predicted by Teagasc, are that yields will be back by a tonne per hectare.
IFA National Grain Committee chairman Paddy Harrington has, meanwhile, pointed out that EU and world feed grain prices have hardened in response to tightening world stocks.
Advising growers not to be conditioned into accepting a low price for this year's Irish crop, he said world grain prices have risen dramatically in response to this week's USDA report, which has revised downwards world wheat, US maize and soyabean production.
It may take some time for low world stocks to affect the European market.
British grain traders said last week that wherever they looked Ireland, Spain, Portugal Baltic or Black Sea wheat was being offered substantially cheaper than UK grain.
"We tried to sell some wheat into Holland only to be told the Germans were offering feed wheat cheaper than us," an exporter said.
Some traders also reported problems on achieving milling wheat sales, because of Black Sea supplies.
"We're hearing that Ukrainian wheat, which is going in as feed, is actually showing some characteristics which could displace our varieties, which the Spanish and the Italians usually like," the exporter said.
Mr Harrington said US maize and soyabean production has been cut by a further 23m tonnes and 6m tonnes, respectively. The US CBOT maize futures have lifted by seven dollars to eight dollars per tonne and soyabean by nine dollars to ten dollars per tonne since last Monday.
US wheat for September delivery is trading at $130 per tonne with maize at $109 per tonne and soyabean at $215 per tonne.
Mr Harrington said in addition, the combined Canadian and Australian wheat harvest has been revised downwards by a further eight million tonnes since last month.
This shortfall will be offset somewhat by increased exports from Kazakstan, Ukraine and India, but overall there will be considerable reductions in wheat stocks in the major exporting regions.
The IFA man predicted that EU and Irish grain prices will lift in response to the dramatic rise in world prices for maize, wheat and soya.
Urging growers not to be conditioned into accepting a low price for this year's Irish crop, he said 100 and 106 per tonne are achievable prices for green barley and wheat, respectively for the 2002 harvest.
Poorer yields combined with a dramatic rise in the volume of wheat destined for whole crop or crimping will reduce the supplies of wheat this harvest, he said.
