Concern over South American imports

EU: A widening of the deficit between production and consumption of beef has been forecast for the EU for 2005 and is expected to result in a market opening for an additional 380,000 tonnes of beef in the current year.

On the downside for EU producers is the increase in exports into the EU from South America, where beef prices are at a level that exports can competitively sell into the EU markets paying full duty on exports.

Bord Bia says that production of beef and veal within the EU increased by 1% last year, but the projections for 2005 are for a reduction of 2.5%. Production in Germany is expected to fall by nearly 7%. Britain is expected to be down by over 3% - if the over 30 months ban is not lifted during the final quarter of the year - and lower production is also forecast for Italy, France, Spain, Holland and Ireland. Portugal is the only country in which an increase in production is expected. After showing increases in 2003 and 2004, consumption of beef within the EU is expected to stabilise at its current level, which is about 90,000 tonnes higher than pre-BSE levels, which leaves EU self-sufficiency in beef at 95%.