British beef output in decline
The British Meat and Livestock Commission has projected a decline of 4% - equivalent to 40,000 tonnes - in beef production for 2006 on the basis of the December 2005 cattle survey results which has shown that the total cattle population has dropped by 2.6%.
The omens have brightened for Irish exports with the MLC expecting that supplies will reach their tightest from Autumn 2006 onwards, which corresponds to the peak output season for Irish production. The improved market environment will be dependent on the restrictions of South American beef continuing beyond the late summer.
End of year cattle returns showed that the cow herd had dropped by 5%, dairy cows down by 4% and beef in-calf heifers by 7%, reflecting production adjustment following decoupling and change over to the single farm payment.
Dairy in-calf heifers were increased by 4%. Cattle under a year old were lower by nearly 6% - males down by 9 % and females back by 4% - with cattle in the 1-2 year category unchanged.
Analysis of the cattle population indicates that supplies of beef should tighten for the remainder of the year, with an overall decline of 4% for the year. Supplies to the end of March are expected to be stable, before declining into the summer months and most of the impact from lower domestic production to become evident from Autumn on.
Cow supplies, expected to average 10,000 head/week, following the ending of the OTM scheme, have failed to reach the expected level. The MLC however is standing by the projection that supplies will average 10,000 head/week.
