British slaughtering increase likely
According to the latest forecast from the Meat and Livestock Commission (MLC) the number of prime beef animals slaughtered in Britain is expected to increase by 3% this year amounting to an increase of 60,000 head going through the processing plants.
Two factors have been identified in the latest forecast for the increase. The retention of more calves on farms in 2003 and the expected earlier marketing of cattle during the final quarter of this year to benefit from the slaughter premiums which run out on December 31.
On the balancing side MLC expects the increase in volume of beef coming on to the market will amount to 2%, with the meat yield from the 2.2m animals slaughtered expected to decline slightly because of earlier slaughtering of animals.
Consumption of beef in Britain is expected to reach over one million tonnes for the first time since 1989 as consumer confidence in beef returns to its pre-BSE and foot-and-mouth levels level, says Bord Bia.
Household purchases of beef for 2003 were 3% higher than for 2002 and consumption is expected to increase by a further 1% this year.
An increase of 2% in the tonnage of meat produced in Britain against a 1% increase in consumer demand will reduced import requirements, but the critical factor on the market for the year will be the decision and timing of the removal of the ban on over 30 months cattle entering the food chain.
Because of the time frame required the release of over 30 months beef into the food chain cannot take place prior to autumn of this year.
If the ban is lifted next autumn it is predicted that an additional 200,000 cattle will be released into the food market displacing imports for the final quarter of the year.
