European gas prices fall amid optimism of US-Iran deal

US secretary of state Marco Rubio. Mr Rubio said the US was going to give diplomacy every chance

European natural gas dropped, extending last week’s decline, on optimism that the US and Iran are nearing a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies.

Benchmark futures fell as much as 6.7% after US president Donald Trump said in a social media post that “the negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner,” although he added that the US would not to rush into a deal.

Most gas from the Middle East normally goes to Asia, but persisting disruptions to flows through Hormuz could intensify competition for a limited global pool of liquefied natural gas. That would complicate Europe’s efforts to refill its lower-than-usual fuel inventories before next winter.

The region’s vast storage facilities are now about 38% full, significantly below the five-year average for this time of the year of just above 50%. While it’s normal for storage to decline in winter and be refilled in summer, this year’s campaign has been slow to take off.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio also struck a cautiously upbeat tone, saying the US was going to give diplomacy every chance. “We thought we might have some news last night,” he told reporters in New Delhi. “Maybe today.” Still, it remains unclear how key differences, including the fate of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, will be addressed. Iran’s Tasnim news agency said the draft agreement could still collapse because the US was obstructing some key clauses, including a demand that its assets be unfrozen.

Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, fell 4.9% to €46.32 a megawatt-hour as of 8:56 a.m. in Amsterdam. Trading volumes are very thin as many market participants are away because of holidays in the UK and parts of the continent.

Bloomberg