Tourism sector forecasts revenue rebound in 2026 after challenging year

Visitor numbers to Ireland are expected to be down 6% this year, but tourism industry intelligence points to a flat year or one marginally down

Chief executive of the Irish Tourism Industry Confederation Eoghan O’Mara Walsh: 'We are predicting growth of 5%-7% in tourism revenue based on a stable global economy and increased air access into the country.'

Despite 2025 seeing a reduction in the number of tourists travelling to Ireland, the tourism sector is projecting growth in revenue over the coming 12 months of between 5% and 7%, the Irish Tourism Industry Confederation (ITIC) has said.

Based on Central Statistics Office (CSO) data from between January and October, the latest data which is available, the ITIC is projecting a 6% fall in total visitor numbers to Ireland during 2025 to approximately 6.16 million.

The ITIC said there “remains a misalignment” between the tourism data published by the CSO and “industry intelligence with tourism business data pointing to a flat year or one marginally down”.

Visitor numbers to Ireland from across Europe, Australia, and New Zealand have fallen over the course of the year, compared to 2024, with visitor numbers from Canada and US increasing by 8% and 4%, respectively.

Visitor expenditure during 2025 is expected to be down 13% to €5.27bn while domestic tourism increased by 1% to €3.62bn. The North American market was the most valuable to Irish tourism worth €1.93bn with the average US visitor spending €1,282 while in Ireland.

However, the ITIC warned that Irish tourism was becoming increasingly dependent on the North American market and needed to pursue a market diversification strategy in case of US economic volatility.

The Continental European market is the next most valuable at €1.73bn while the British market is worth €1.61bn. Meanwhile new and emerging markets were worth €445m.

The most popular domestic region for overnight trips by Irish residents in the busy summer months was the Southern region — which includes Clare, Tipperary, Limerick, Waterford, Kilkenny, Carlow, Wexford, Cork, and Kerry — which accounted for 49% of all trips during the third quarter.

The ITIC estimates that in 2025 15.44 million domestic trips (-7%) will have been taken by Irish residents, down 7%. The average spend per domestic visitor in 2025 is projected to be €235 per person.

2026 forecast

In its outlook for 2026, the ITIC said that, despite macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, it is predicting growth of between 5% and 7% in tourism revenue for the coming 12 months. This is predicated on a stable global economy and increased air access into the country. 

Chief executive of the ITIC Eoghan O’Mara Walsh said “Irish tourism leaders are cautiously optimistic”.

“We are predicting growth of 5%-7% in tourism revenue based on a stable global economy and increased air access into the country. The projection is also reliant on pro-tourism and pro-enterprise policies from Government including the lifting of the Dublin Airport passenger cap, appropriate investment, and increased tourism accommodation supply.” 

According to the ITIC, the cost of doing business is the primary concern for those in the tourism sector. It cited data from Eurostat which showed Ireland being the second most expensive country in the EU.

“Higher input costs across labour, food, energy, and insurance naturally found their way to consumer prices whilst also squeezing profit margins,” the ITIC said.