Grocery price inflation eases slightly in run-up to Christmas

Nearly 18% of Irish households bought their groceries online in the 12 weeks to November 30

As of November 30, grocery price inflation stood at 6% compared to the same period last year. File photo

Grocery price inflation eased at the end of November but it is still running nearly twice as high as the consumer price index (CPI) as households prepare for Christmas festivities, new data from market research firm Worldpanel by Numerator shows.

As of November 30, grocery price inflation stood at 6% compared to the same period last year. This is down slightly from the 6.5% recorded in the prior four weeks. According to the latest CPI, headline inflation in the economy was running at 3.2% in November.

According to Worldpanel by Numerator, take-home grocery sales in Ireland rose by 4.5% in the four weeks to November 30, compared to the same period last year, meaning shoppers spent €56m more.

Business development director at Worldpanel by Numerator, Emer Healy, said for brands and retailers this time of the year is the “critical window of opportunity” to capture those indulgent impulse purchases customers are making.

“With busy social calendars, shoppers are prioritising quick wins with ready-to-go gifts, easy meal solutions and anything that saves them time,” she said.

In the 12 weeks to November 30, branded items held the highest value share of the market since January 2025 at 49.9% with shoppers spending nearly an additional €96m on branded ranges versus last year. An additional €2.1m was spent on branded seasonal chocolate compared to last year.

Own label saw strong growth during the same period, up 5.3%, with shoppers spending an additional €82.6m on these ranges versus last year. Premium own label ranges recorded growth of 10.7%, an additional spend of €13.8m by shoppers.

Ms Healy said for Christmas dinner staples they are seeing “essentials like vegetables going down in price, but an increase in turkey and seasonal sweet biscuits, which is nudging up the overall price of the Christmas dinner”.

Online shopping has grown by 6.7% compared to last year with shoppers spending €14.4m more. Nearly 18% of Irish households bought their groceries online during this time.

Market share

In terms of market share of consumer spending, Dunnes Stores held 24.8%, in the 12 weeks to November 30, with larger and more frequent trips contributing an additional €24.9m to their overall performance.

Tesco holds 24% of the market while SuperValu holds 19.3%. Lidl and Aldi hold 13.5% and 10.9% respectively. 

This data is based on over 30,000 products on sale in grocery stores compared year-on-year.

Sector data

Additional data published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) shows that overall service producer prices increased on average by 1.9% during the third quarter — July through to September — when compared to the same period last year.

In terms of sectors which may be particularly busy during the festive period, hospitality service prices increased by 2.8% year-on-year while postal and courier service prices increased by 1.3%. Whereas transport services decreased by 6.1%.

Across the services sector, the area which saw the largest increase in prices was real estate and rental, up 14.3%, followed by advertising and other professional services, up 9.9%. Legal, accounting, public relations, and business management consultancy prices also rose by 9.4%.