Irish GDP falls by marginal 0.1% in latest quarter 

Gross domestic product is estimated to have risen by 10.5% in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same period 2024

Preliminary figures released by the statistics agency said gross domestic product (GDP) showed a slight decrease in the most recent quarter, primarily underpinned by a contraction in the multinational sector. Pic: Larry Cummins

Early estimates of economic growth in the three months from July to September show a marginal fall of 0.1% compared to the previous three-month period, new figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) show.

Preliminary figures released by the statistics agency on Tuesday said gross domestic product (GDP) showed a slight decrease in the most recent quarter, primarily underpinned by a contraction in the multinational sector, exports for which skyrocketed in the first few months of this year.

Between January and March, Irish-based companies across pharma, food, medtech, machinery and beyond exported goods to the US at a rapid rate as part of efforts to reduce their exposure to a series of punitive tariff measures on goods entering the country from US President Donald Trump, leading to an almost 7.5% rise in GDP across the three months. 

In March alone, Irish exports to the US rose from €5.1bn to €25.4bn, up almost 400% on an annual basis.

However, as many companies, particularly across pharma and medical technology, raced to stockpile goods in the US ahead of Mr Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcement on April 2, many economists warned that the unprecedented rise in economic growth would cool down significantly in the second half of the year.

The US has since implemented tariffs of 15% on most goods entering the country from Ireland, with Irish exports to the US dropping by almost 39% in August, the most recent month recorded by the CSO, reflecting a decrease of €2.6bn in the month.

However, despite the fall in exports in the second half of the year, the CSO noted that when using the early estimate for the most recent quarter of 2025, GDP is estimated to have expanded by 10.5% when compared with the same three-month period in 2024. 

"GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in July, August, and September of 2025 in volume terms when compared with the second quarter of 2025," said CSO statistician Enda Behan. 

"This was driven by a decrease in the multinational-dominated sector of Industry in the third quarter."

These preliminary results are subject to revisions, which will be published in early December 2025 when additional data sources are available to the CSO, the agency said.

The use of GDP has long been cautioned by the Government and economists, particularly when measuring economic growth in Ireland, due to the figures being frequently distorted by the activity of multinationals. 

A preferred measure is modified domestic demand (MDD), which excludes multinational activity and provides a more accurate representation of the domestic economy. 

In the second quarter of 2025, MDD was reported by the CSO to have risen by 0.6%.