Irish workers most exposed to impact of US tariffs across the EU 

Ireland's exports are particularly dependent on the US market largely due large violume of pharmaceuticals shipped across the Atlantic. Picture; David Creedon / Anzenberger

Irish workers are the most exposed to impacts of US tariffs across the EU and are more afraid about the potential for job losses as a new analysis by the European Central Bank (ECB) finds that the tariffs could still add further “drag to firm and consumer confidence". 

In July, the US agreed to implement a 15% tariff on all EU goods entering the country. The agreement was finalised in August.

Ireland is particularly exposed to the US tariff regime due to the large volumes of exports, mainly pharmaceuticals, shipped across the Atlantic.

In its analysis, the ECB examined whether workers across the EU are more concerned about losing their jobs since the imposition of the tariff system. The analysis was largely based on results from their consumer expectations survey.

Survey findings

The ECB found that across the EU, most workers were not any more worried about losing their job after the tariff deal was announced than they were beforehand.

Their survey found that 85% of workers across the EU said their job loss expectations were unchanged or even lower following the implementation of US tariffs.

“This might be because their employers would not be directly affected by a lower demand from US consumers,” the ECB.

However, for the remaining 15% of workers, the picture is different with this group seeing a higher probability of job losses. 

According to European Commission calculations Ireland has the largest share of total jobs dependent on exports of goods and services to the US at 6.7% which is over double that of the next nearest member State which is the Netherlands at 3.2%.

“Unsurprisingly, the share of workers more afraid of job loss is higher in countries in which the workforce is more exposed to US exports, such as Ireland,” the ECB said.

The ECB said that specifically workers in industry, construction or trade feel “more negatively affected by those tariffs” as these sectors are more “reliant on US exports or generally more prone to upswings and downswings”.

“Workers in the financial services and information and communication technology sectors are also more exposed to US tariffs and report higher job fears,” the ECB said.

“This is especially the case for workers in Ireland and the Netherlands, which host the European headquarters for many US firms and are very open economies. This means that workers in these countries are more vulnerable to stricter trade policies.” 

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The ECB said it is reasonable for workers to generally perceive that the US tariffs won’t impact their jobs as they are not directly exposed to the US.

“Nonetheless, some workers in more exposed sectors reported an increase in their job loss expectations. This matters when it comes to assessing the broader economic consequences of tariffs,” the ECB said.

"Past research shows that workers who expect to lose their jobs are more likely to actually lose them later. Hence, while the direct impact of US tariffs on jobs appears to be limited, their impact on some workers can be stronger and might add further drag to firm and consumer confidence.”