Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney in pole position to become Canada's next prime minister

Former Bank of England governor Mark Carney is the front runner to succeed Canada prime minister Justin Trudeau as both party chief and head of the country's government in the midst of a trade war with the United States that could cripple the Canadian economy. Picture: Alastair Grant/PA Wire

Canada's Liberal Party will announce Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's successor as both party chief and head of the country's government in the midst of a trade war with the United States that could cripple the Canadian economy.

The next prime minister will have to negotiate with US President Donald Trump as he threatens additional tariffs on Canada and may soon face the opposition Conservatives in a general election.

Mr Trudeau announced in January he would step down after more than nine years in power as his approval rating plummeted, forcing the ruling Liberal Party to run a quick contest to replace him.

"Is it ideal in a circumstance of bilateral crisis for us? I suppose not," said Drew Fagan, a professor at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. "But on the other hand, the process is playing out domestically as it should."

Former Bank of England governor and central banker Mark Carney is the front-runner, with most endorsements from party members and most money raised among the four Liberal candidates. Around two-thirds of Mr Trudeau's cabinet publicly back Mr Carney, and a Mainstreet poll in late February showed Carney with 43% support among Liberals compared to 31% for his main rival, former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.

Ms Freeland has touted her experience negotiating with Trump during his first term but has struggled to differentiate herself from Mr Trudeau after being one of his most loyal supporters for years. She left his government in December after Trudeau tried to replace her, and she criticized his government's spending policies.

A victory for Carney, 59, would be the first time an outsider with no real political background has become Canadian prime minister.

Mr Carney has said his experience as the first person to serve as the governor of two central banks - Canada and England - meant he was the best candidate to deal with Trump.

Some 400,000 Liberal members were eligible to cast their votes for party leader. The party is due to announce the first round of results on Sunday night.

During the campaign, Mr Carney said he supported dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs against the United States and a coordinated strategy to boost investment. He has repeatedly complained that Canada's growth under Mr Trudeau was not good enough.

The prospect of a fresh start for the Liberal Party under Mr Carney, combined with US tariffs and his repeated taunts to annex Canada as the 51st US state, has led to a remarkable revival of Liberal fortunes. At the start of 2025 the party trailed by 20 or more points but is now statistically tied with the official opposition Conservatives in several polls.