Britain needs to build 400,000 new homes a year to meet chronic shortages, analysis shows
More than four years ago, the ruling Conservative Party pledged to build 300,000 new homes a year, a target they fell short of every year after, before making it advisory in 2022.
Britain is not building enough homes and the shortage is about to get even worse. That is based on calculations by Bloomberg News of government population data and homebuilding targets from the biggest political parties, which suggests a shortfall of almost 100,000 homes a year over the next parliament when including pent-up demand from years of missed targets.
As it is in Ireland, housing is a key battleground for politicians as the country readies for Westminster elections expected later this year. A prelude of which comes with two by-elections on Thursday, where a lack of affordable housing has come into sharp relief.
More than four years ago, the ruling Conservative Party pledged to build 300,000 new homes a year, a target they fell short of every year after, before making it advisory in 2022.
The Labour Party, which is leading in the polls, effectively matched the objective by promising in October to build 1.5 million homes over five years, should it get into power.
But Britain will need to build almost 400,000 dwellings annually over the next five years to factor in stronger population growth — almost all of which will come from immigration — as well as the homes that would have been built had targets since 2019 been met, according to calculations by Bloomberg News.
The trouble is, the number of new homes being built is not even close to the targets. An average of about 200,000 were completed each year in the UK between 2018 and 2022, according to government-compiled data. Even more, the pipeline is being choked after a decade of budget cuts left local authorities without the resources to approve enough new homes in a timely fashion, Bloomberg News reported previously.
About 1,500 new private residential projects went under construction in the UK last year, the lowest in at least a decade and about 50% lower than approvals in 2018, according to data compiled exclusively for Bloomberg by researcher Glenigan.
During the first week of December, temperatures in the market town of Wellingborough, central England, dropped close to freezing. A man — who was reportedly homeless — died after sleeping rough in the town’s park. Wellingborough’s only homeless shelter was shut down during the pandemic, meaning the closest facility is now a 30-minute bus journey away.
“The town was in shock at the death, but there was also a feeling of deja vu,” said Mayor of Wellingborough Valerie Anslow, a Labour Party councillor, who ran the town’s former homeless shelter.
“We’ve got more and more people in temporary accommodation, which is consequence of a lack of affordable housing.”
A by-election for Wellingborough, where the Tories have a margin of more than 18,000 votes, should ordinarily be an easy hold for the party, but Labour has achieved a string of victories in other recent by-elections, partly driven by a series of pledges to stoke housebuilding.
Ireland needs at least 35,000 new public and private homes and as many as 40,000 new units to be built over many years to make up for the shortage of houses that were not built for one reason or another over the last decade, many economists have forecast.
In a major report last month, the Economic and Social Research Institute said new data on population growth showed more homes than previously projected by the Government would likely be required to 2030 to meet demand.
Government officials have drawn up lists of shortages of construction trades for housebuilding that will need to be addressed if Ireland is to meet any new revised targets. Business groups have identified housing and the high costs of rents as a major competitiveness issue for Irish business.
• Bloomberg. Additional reporting Irish Examiner
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