Neil McDonnell: Extent of Covid economic scarring remains unknown

It is only as trade in the long-shuttered sectors of society recommences that we will get a feel for how bad the post-pandemic economic scarring is going to be, writes Neil McDonnell

While the Government has, arguably, mismanaged the reopening of the economy in moving too slowly, it has balanced this with one of the best-executed vaccination strategies in the world

We look with cautious optimism towards September 20, when almost all our economy will reopen.

It is only as trade in the long-shuttered sectors of society recommences that we will get a feel for how bad the post-pandemic economic scarring is going to be.

While the Government has, arguably, mismanaged the reopening of the economy in moving too slowly, it has balanced this with one of the best-executed vaccination strategies in the world.

We have also avoided some of the more zany public health approaches such as ‘zero Covid’. 

This has been utterly discredited as a public health strategy, and proponents in Australia and New Zealand are now struggling with successive lockdowns as they try to accelerate their vaccination programmes.

Pursuit of a ‘zero Covid’ strategy makes as much sense as zero-colds, or zero-flu.

The disproportionate voice given by media to fringe groups such as ISAG will no doubt form part of the pandemic post-mortem. 

In truth, management of the public health in a global pandemic is much closer to conflict or crisis management than it is to healthcare.

It requires some of the leadership qualities of a wartime leader. 

It also requires an ability to acknowledge and deal with “the fog of war.” 

The pandemic produced a tsunami of data and statistics, sometimes contradictory.

A great observation is credited to Winston Churchill when, in October 1941, he was being pressed hard by senior RAF officers to bet the ranch on heavy bombers, which he was assured would end the war in six months.

His response, a profound recognition of the fog of war, was to state: “All things are always on the move simultaneously.” 

The Taoiseach and the 14 members of cabinet are not virologists, epidemiologists, nor public health experts. 

They must parse the mountain of data coming at them from multiple sources and experts, some of whom are right up to half the time.

We pay the Government not to be right – although, it is a bonus when they are - but to decide and to lead. 

That is its duty, no matter how many silly questions are put to it. 

Anyone who is uncomfortable with that duty should never accept a seal of ministerial office from the President in Áras an Uachtaráin.

There is a haste in declaring malevolence in politicians and public servants without examination, evidence, analysis or even curiosity. 

We are content to instantly condemn those we perceive as possessing a different social outlook than ourselves while being simultaneously happy to overlook any transgression among those we like.

The fact is that our government’s performance during this pandemic stands up well to international comparison.

Where there has been failing, it has been to misunderstand the relationship between informed advice and the exercise of executive power. NPHET’s job was to provide the former, not the latter. 

NPHET got it wrong early on with mask-wearing, and continues to get it wrong with antigen testing.

But, the Government had invested so much in their credibility and infallibility that it failed to call out obvious errors of judgment by a team which became more self-referential as the pandemic wore on.

The real sea-change visible to us, post-pandemic, is the decline in interpersonal skills, and the effects of pent-up frustration and anger in workplaces. 

Minor issues handled over a coffee or cigarette pre-pandemic are escalating into significant inter-personal disputes.

People have lost the ability to deal with each other in an appropriate way where there is difficulty or difference.

This has led to a rise in the number of businesses seeking advice for dispute resolution, communications advice and mediation.

It’s great, of course, for those who provide these services, but I’m already hearing of counsellors who are turning people away or have long waiting lists.

The mental health aspect of the pandemic is one of the great imponderables we have yet to face.

Roll on Christmas!

• Neil McDonnell is the chief executive of the Irish Small and Medium Enterprises Association.