Eli Lilly sees surging sales in contrast to obesity rival Novo

Drugmaker projected robust sales, solidifying its dominance in the weight-loss drug sector as demand soars and rival Novo Nordisk faces headwinds

Wed, 04 Feb, 2026 - 15:04

Eli Lilly provided an upbeat sales forecast for the year on Wednesday as strong demand for its weight-loss drug cemented its position at the top of the obesity market.

The guidance was a sharp contrast to rival Novo Nordisk, which warned investors on Tuesday that its sales could drop as much as 13% this year on intensifying price competition in the weight-loss market. Lilly, on the other hand, expects its sales to grow as much as 27% this year.

Weight-loss drugs are in high demand, and Lilly and Novo are fending off competition from telehealth companies selling cheaper copycat versions.

Lilly — which maintains a significant presence in Ireland with facilities in Kinsale, Limerick, and Little Island — is in a comparatively stronger position than Novo because its blockbusters Mounjaro, for diabetes, and Zepbound, for obesity, have another decade of patent life.

Lilly has also been more proactive in fighting off copycat competition. Meanwhile, Novo’s drugs will face generic competition as soon as this year in some countries.

“This is just more evidence they are dominating the category,” Mizuho’s Jared Holz said of Lilly’s obesity market position.

“Novo is playing from behind and everyone knows it.”

Full-year sales

Lilly’s full-year sales will be $80bn (€67.8bn) to $83bn (€70.3bn), Lilly said on Wednesday, beating the average Wall St estimate of $77.7bn (€65.9bn). Lilly expects 2026 adjusted earnings in the range of $33.50 a share to $35 a share, compared to the $33.08 a share that analysts expected.

Lilly is also waiting for approval of its weight-loss pill, which could come as soon as April. Novo launched a weight-loss pill this year that has gotten off to a strong start. In the four weeks since its launch, more than 170,000 patients have taken the pill, Novo chief executive officer Mike Doustdar said in an interview.

Lilly is prepared to move quickly to compete. The company has already produced billions of doses of its oral drug ahead of its launch. The company has said the lowest dose of the pill, if approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), will cost $149 a month.

The drugmaker is also selling a new multidose version of Zepbound, a move that helped Lilly secure its deal with president Donald Trump. Previously, Zepbound was available in the US in two different forms: A single-use vial and single-dose auto-injector that are thrown away each week after use.

In a letter dated January 20, the FDA gave Lilly the go-ahead to sell Zepbound in a device that contains a month’s worth of medication.