Maduro capture puts Venezuela oil production agreements in doubt

Supporters of president Nicolas Maduro in Caracas demand his release from US custody. Picture: AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos

The future of billions of barrels of Venezuelan oil that foreign companies are entitled to under current agreements has been thrown into doubt following the US capture of the country's president Nicolás Maduro over the weekend.

State-owned Chinese and Russian companies have some of the biggest claims on the Latin American nation’s oil, Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats said in a note. Nevertheless, the significant assets are still far outweighed by the more than 200bn barrels held by Petroleos de Venezuela SA.

“The crucial question is what will happen with Venezuela’s production from here. This remains hard to forecast,” the analysts said. “Over the medium term, however, risks to production are clearly to the upside, at least from a resource and technical perspective.” 

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp, known as Sinopec, has around 2.8bn barrels of oil that it’s entitled to in Venezuela, followed by Roszarubezhneft and China National Petroleum Corp, Morgan Stanley said, citing data from consultant Wood Mackenzie. Roszarubezhneft bought Rosneft PJSC’s assets in the Latin American country in 2020.

Indian companies ONGC Videsh Ltd and Indian Oil Corp have smaller entitlements to Venezuelan oil resources, according to information on their websites.

There have also been several small Chinese firms that have entered production-sharing agreements with PDVSA such as Anhui Guangda Mining Investment Co, Anhui Erhuan Petroleum Group, and China Concord Resources Corp, according to Michal Meidan, head of China energy research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

It’s likely “the Chinese government and firms will wait and see how events unfold,” she said. “They may lose flows and assets in the short term, but they may well find their way back to Venezuela over time.”

Bloomberg