Dublin Airport passenger numbers to grow to around 40m before cap resolved, says Ryanair boss

Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary has said passenger traffic through Dublin Airport could hit 40m a year, by which time there is little chance the Government will cut that back. Picture: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire

The number of people passing through Dublin Airport could grow to between 38m and 40m by the time the issue of the passenger cap works its way through the courts, Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary has said, at which point the chances of cutting that back down would be “zero”.

Under Dublin Airport’s 2007 planning permission, it is limited to managing 32m passengers a year through both of their terminals. The cap was breached last year, when over 33m passengers passed through the airport, and will be breached again this year, according to trends.

A group of airlines, which includes Ryanair and Aer Lingus, has challenged the legality of the passenger cap, saying it infringes upon the EU’s principle of freedom of movement as well as the EU-US Open Skies Agreement.

Enforcement of the cap was suspended by the High Court with the matter being referred to the Court of Justice of the European Union.

Speaking to the media on Thursday, Mr O’Leary said he expects the case to be heard sometime in the middle of next year.

"We're going to the High Court sometime in the next month, looking for reference to Europe on the night movements cap as well,” he said, acknowledging that it could be 2027 before that case is heard.

"In which case, we think traffic at Dublin Airport will be close to 38m or 40m passengers," he said, adding that even if they lose the court case, the chance of the Government or the Irish Aviation Authority coming along and saying “cut 8m passengers a year of Dublin Airport is zero”.

Drafting legislation

Earlier this month, transport minister Darragh O'Brien said that he will send a memo to Cabinet in the first week of October and begin the process of drafting legislation that will remove the airport's 32m a year passenger limit.

However, Mr O’Leary said removing the cap was promised in the programme for the government and it has “nothing done for nine months”.

The Ryanair boss was also asked about the issues facing the current chief executive of the Dublin Airport operator DAA, Kenny Jacobs.

Mr Jacobs, who previously worked at Ryanair as its chief marketing officer, is expected to leave his role as DAA chief executive, a position he’s held since January 2023, early next year after a rift developed between him and the board.

An exit package, reportedly worth around €1m, is understood to have been agreed.

While Mr O’Leary said he was not a fan of the work Mr Kenny has done at DAA, he said it is “absolutely unconscionable” that the board of the Dublin Airport operator is going to pay over €1m in an exit package.

“If it was me, then I’d fire the board,” he said, adding that if a change is going to cost that much he sees “no point” in making it.

Mr O’Leary also launched the airline’s winter schedule on Thursday, adding one airplane to Dublin Airport as well as adding a route to Rabat in Morocco. He added that there will be extra flights on 28 other routes, including to Birmingham, Budapest, Krakow, Milan, and Valencia.

Mr O’Leary said that Ryanair is seeing stronger forward bookings, which are 1% ahead of where they were at this time last year, and fares are up.

“We think we're getting close to fares this year being up about 7%. Last year, our fares fell about 7%,” he said.