Ryanair trims traffic forecast again on Boeing delays

Airline is 'cautiously guiding' after-tax profit in a range of €1.55bn to €1.61bn, with ongoing delays likely to result in a rise in fares 

Ryanair said it expects to take delivery of nine Boeing 737 MAX aircraft ahead of its peak summer season, fewer than expected. Picture David Creedon

Ryanair grew its after-tax profit by almost tenfold in the three months to the end of December, rising to €149m compared to just €15m in the same period in the previous year. 

In a trading update on Monday, the airline said traffic grew by 9% to 45m passengers, with a marginal 1% rise in fares over the Christmas period also boosting revenue.

However, Ryanair's profits for the first nine months of its financial year totalled €1.9bn, reflecting a 12% fall from the €2.2bn recorded in the same period in 2023. This was largely due to lower fares charged by the airline, which fell by 8% over the period. 

CEO Michael O'Leary said that Ryanair, which makes most of its profit during its summer season, was "cautiously guiding" after-tax profit for the 12 months to March 31 in a range of €1.55bn to €1.61bn. Shares in Ryanair were up 3.9% in Dublin trading on Monday morning. 

The airline said it also expects to receive nine Boeing 737 Max aircraft ahead of the peak summer season, fewer than initially expected, resulting in a trimmed forecast in passenger numbers in the 12 months to March 31. 

"Things at Boeing have improved hugely," Ryanair CFO Neil Sorahan said. Mr Sorahan, who along with CEO Michael O'Leary has visited Boeing's production facility in Seattle several times in the last year, told the Irish Examiner: "Morale there is very strong. The quality of the aircraft is good."

"I would have a high degree of confidence that we will receive nine more aircraft before the peak summer period of this year, which enables us to hit our 206m traffic targets."

This is down from an initial target of 210m, Ryanair said. 

Mr Sorahan also said he expects Ryanair to have all of the outstanding 29 aircraft in its 210 "gamechanger" order book the summer of next year.

"I'd be disappointed if we did not have all that by March," the CFO told the Irish Examiner. 

Mr Sorahan said that a 4m fall in passenger traffic would likely result in higher fares going forward. 

"Airbus and Boeing are both behind in their deliveries. Operators in Europe are behind also. I think its inevitable that prices will go up, but its hard to say by how much."

Looking forward to the summer season, the CFO said it expects issues with air traffic control (ATC), with both Ryanair and other European airlines calling for staffing issues to be addressed with ATC providers. 

Mr Sorahan said that it was important that first flights of the day get out on time, increasing the chances of flights being on schedule throughout the day, and that domestic flights were preserved during strike action, which was "more important," than in European open skies. 

"Those two simple things would make a huge difference. Regrettably, I don't think it will happen ahead of summer 2025."

Ryanair's operating costs rose 8% to €2.9bn as fuel hedge savings offset higher staff and other costs.

The airline is also currently more than halfway through its €800m share buyback, with Mr Sorahan adding that it remains on track to complete this programme by the middle of the year.