Toyota chairman predicts battery electric cars will reach only 30%

Toyota Motor chairman Akio Toyoda says global sales of electric cars will be limited.

Toyota Motor chairman Akio Toyoda believes battery electric vehicles will reach at most 30% market share, with the rest taken up by hybrids, hydrogen fuel cell, and fuel-burning cars.

With 1bn people in the world living without electricity, limiting their choices and ability to travel by making expensive cars isn’t the answer, the grandson of the company’s founder said during a business event, according to remarks published on the company’s media platform.

“Customers — not regulations or politics — should make that decision,” he said.

The world’s No 1 carmaker has pushed back against criticism of falling behind in the transition to electric vehicles, saying that its pioneering hybrid drivetrains, hydrogen technology, and holistic approach will ultimately prove to be the right approach for the business, customers, and the environment. 

Earlier this month, Toyota announced an initiative to develop new combustion engines.

“Engines will surely remain,” Mr Toyoda was quoted as saying in the company publication. 

"It wasn’t clear whether Mr Toyoda’s remarks referred to new car sales or those already on the road.

Electric vehicles will account for 75% of new car sales and 44% of passenger vehicles on the road by 2040, according to a forecast by Bloomberg. 

Touted for years by Mr Toyoda, the “multipathway approach” argues that customers should be able to choose whatever powertrain fits their needs, and that the electric car shift won’t happen as quickly as many think. 

Last year, chief executive Koji Sato said Toyota would sell 1.5m battery electric vehicles a year by 2026, and 3.5m by 2030. 

Meanwhile, Chinese electric car maker Byd has officially overtaken Volkswagen as the best selling car brand in China last year,  clear evidence its all-in bet on electric vehicles is paying dividends and helping it pass some of the world’s biggest legacy names.

Shenzhen-based Byd tallied 2.4m new domestic car insurance registrations last year, data from the China Automotive Technology and Research Centre show, giving it a countrywide market share of 11%, up by 3.2 percentage points.

The Chinese carmaker’s meteoric rise reflects the wider lead Chinese car brands have in developing affordable and high-tech electric vehicles that are quickly gaining international acceptance. 

Firms like Fiat-owner Stellantis and Volkswagen are now turning to Chinese car companies to breathe life into their electric strategies. 

Byd had overtaken Volkswagen as China’s best-selling car brand on a quarterly basis earlier last year, but the latest data show that’s now its status on a full-year basis. 

Volkswagen was China’s best-selling brand since at least 2008, when the China Automotive Technology and Research Centre information became available.

Among the other top five brands, Toyota and Honda both saw their market share and sales volumes fall. 

Domestic player Chongqing Changan Automobile did benefit from increased sales, though its share held flat. 

• Bloomberg