Pfizer predicts €21bn in global sales from its Covid-19 vaccine this year          

The company raised its forecast for 2021 Covid-19 vaccine sales by more than 70% to €21.5bn and said demand from governments around the world trying to halt the pandemic could contribute to its growth for years to come.

Revenue from the vaccine – developed with German partner BioNTech – is expected to account for more than one third of Pfizer's full-year sales this year. File picture: Larry Cummins

Pfizer raised its forecast for 2021 Covid-19 vaccine sales by more than 70% to $26bn (€21.5bn) and said demand from governments around the world trying to halt the pandemic could contribute to its growth for years to come.

The company said it expects by the end of this month to file for full approval of the vaccine for people over the age of 16 in the US, where it is currently only authorised for emergency use. 

It also expects to hear soon from US regulators on the expansion of the vaccine's emergency use authorisation (EUA) for children ages 12-15.

Revenue from the vaccine – developed with German partner BioNTech – is expected to account for more than one third of Pfizer's full-year sales this year.

The forecast is based on already signed contracts for 1.6bn vaccine doses to be delivered this year. 

Sign more deals

The company said it expected to sign more deals for this year and is in supply talks with several countries for 2022 and beyond.

"Based on what we've seen, we believe that a durable demand for our Covid-19 vaccine – similar to that of the flu vaccines – is a likely outcome," chief executive Albert Bourla said.

The two-shot vaccine was Pfizer's top-selling product in the first quarter. 

Expenses and profit from the vaccine are split 50-50 between Pfizer and BioNTech.

Given persistent infections globally and ongoing discussions with governments, Mizuho analyst Vamil Divan said the 2021 forecast could increase further and also spill over to latter years.

Daily vaccination rates for adults in the US have started to slow, off more than 25% since hitting a peak in mid-April. 

Authorisation in younger children would expand the vaccine-eligible population by millions of people.

Pfizer said it expected to have safety and efficacy data for children ages two to 11 in September, when it plans to ask for further expansion of the EUA for that age group.

Pfizer and BioNTech aim to produce up to 2.5bn Covid vaccine doses this year, 900m of which are not yet included in the New York-based drugmaker's sales forecast.

If Pfizer sells that number of doses at similar prices, the vaccine's sales in 2021 could be more than 50% above the projected $26bn.

Moderna

US rival Moderna has forecast $18.4bn in 2021 sales of its similar Covid vaccine.

Pfizer has said it expects to profit from the vaccine, while some drugmakers including Johnson & Johnson have said their vaccine will be sold on a not-for-profit basis until the end of the pandemic.

Pfizer aims to manufacture at least 3bn doses of the vaccine next year. 

It generated $3.5bn in revenue in the first quarter, exceeding analysts' estimates of $3.28bn. 

Total revenue for the quarter of $14.6bn, topped analyst forecasts of $13.5bn.

Pfizer could use the vaccine profit to invest in research and development of other treatments and on deals to spur future growth, said Edward Jones analyst Ashtyn Evans.

The company already said it is boosting research and development spending to fuel drug discovery using the messenger RNA technology in the Covid vaccine. 

Flu vaccines

The company is developing two flu vaccines that are expected to enter clinical trials in the third quarter.

Pfizer shares were up slightly in the latest session in New York and have now gained 8% since the start of the year to value the giant at $222.6bn. 

Shares in its German partner BioNTech have soared in Frankfurt by 280% in the past year. Its drug is at the heart of the Pfizer vaccine, which has suffered less from turbulence than other rival vaccine makers.

In Ireland, Pfizer pledged last year it will invest €300m in its operations here, supporting the development of its existing manufacturing site in Ringaskiddy, alongside sites in Dublin and Kildare, to bring its workforce in Ireland to 4,000 people.

The investment will provide additional manufacturing and laboratory capacity creating about 300 jobs over the next two to three years. Additional construction jobs are anticipated for the Ringaskiddy site.

Its facility in Grange Castle in west Dublin plays a role in quality control of the vaccines produced at a plant in Antwerp in Belgium. 

• Reuters and Irish Examiner