UK GDP figures to be published today

The UK's stuttering economic recovery faces a further test when revised figures for second quarter GDP are published.

The Office for National Statistics' initial estimate of second quarter GDP showed the UK's economy grew by 0.2%, in a slow-down from the 0.5% growth in the previous three months.

But a number of one-off factors such as the Japanese earthquake and an extra bank holiday for the royal wedding have clouded the picture.

This makes revisions more likely in the ONS's second estimate, although most economists still expect the reading to be unchanged.

To further complicate matters, the ONS recently downgraded its figures for second quarter industrial production growth to minus 1.6% from minus 1.4%.

It said the change would have little impact on the overall GDP figure, because manufacturing made up such a small part of the economy.

But Victoria Cadman, an economist at Investec Securities, said it could be "just enough" to push growth back down to 0.1%.

She also said there were "elevated levels of uncertainty" about how the powerhouse services sector performed in the quarter, after the royal wedding disrupted sales.

Earlier this month, the ONS revised construction sector growth up to 2.3% from its previous estimate of 0.5%.

But on the same day, it admitted it had made a blunder and the figure was moved back down to 0.5%.

Ms Cadman said construction data could again be revised, making it "a potential wildcard" among the GDP figures.

The economy has effectively been flatlining in recent months as it struggles to gain momentum amid the squeeze in consumer spending.

GDP contracted by 0.5% in the final quarter of 2010 when December was disrupted by Arctic weather conditions. The 0.5% rise in the following quarter was only enough to cancel out this decline.

If second quarter growth was to be revised down below the already lacklustre 0.2%, it would increase calls on the Chancellor George Osborne to adopt a "plan B" to stimulate the economy.