The likely winners and losers in Leo Varadkar’s revamped cabinet

Mr Kenny is the big loser. While a Brexit Minister role has been ruled out, a Brexit envoy position has been hinted at.
The crisis-hit minister is likely to lose her Tánaiste position to Simon Coveney, but it remains unclear if she will retain justice. She may be replaced by Richard Bruton, although keeping her could limit garda scandal contamination. Her Varadkar support and the small number of women in cabinet ensure another ministerial role.
Mr Coveney wants to retain housing, but there is speculation Mr Varadkar will make him Tánaiste. Keep your friends close... particularly when that friend is backed by two thirds of grassroots members.
The veteran politician does not want to be considered for the next cabinet.
Guaranteed to remain in cabinet. It is likely the pay talks will mean he retains public expenditure, although an eventual move to finance is inevitable. An outside possibility for Tánaiste, too.
Mr Bruton notably announced on the leadership campaign’s first morning that he would back Mr Varadkar, leading to speculation of a deal. A move to justice or finance looks likely.
Much has been made about how Coveney support and a perceived frosty relationship with Mr Varadkar mean he is heading for the door. But a lengthy stay in health may be Mr Harris’s true punishment.
While Mr Flanagan is part of the older generation which Mr Varadkar will wish to subtly leave behind, Flanagan’s experience in foreign affairs, political difficulties in Northern Ireland, and Brexit may mean he will be kept where he is for now.
The Cavan-Monaghan TD has won over her detractors, while her geographical location and gender ensure her retention.
The Cork TD — who will have a key role in the Brexit fallout — will stay where he is.
Fine Gael-Independents deal guarantees his position.
Fine Gael-Independents deal guarantees her position.
Fine Gael-Independents deal guarantees his position.
One of the most at-risk ministers, she will likely be replaced by Mr Varadkar’s campaign manager and junior finance minister, Eoghan Murphy. The backbenches beckon.
Safe junior ministers
Retained due to Fine Gael- Independents deal.
Retained due to Fine Gael-Independents deal.
Retained due to Fine Gael- Independents deal.
Mr Coveney will ensure his campaign manager is retained.
May be retained, due to geographical reasons and Varadkar support.
Junior ministers vying for promotion
Promotion certainty.
Promotion contender.
Promotion contender.
Promotion contender.
Promotion contender.
Promotion contender.
Unclear.
Demotion likely.
Demotion likely.
At risk of demotion, but Brexit experience may save him.
At risk of demotion.
At risk of demotion.
Ambitious backbenchers
Michael D’Arcy (Wexford)
John Paul Phelan (Carlow-Kilkenny)
Brendan Griffin (Kerry)
Jim Daly (Cork South West)
Josepha Madigan (Dublin Rathdown)
Noel Rock (Dublin North West)
Peter Burke (Longford-Westmeath)
Alan Farrell (Dublin Fingal).