Lost out on Facebook IPO? Blame yourself
Is it Mark Zuckerberg, founder and chief executive? Someone else at the site? Morgan Stanley, the bank that led the deal? Nasdaq, which botched the stock’s early trading?
If you lost money on Facebook shares, which have given up about half their value since the company’s IPO, the answer is: None of these.
Since Facebook debuted in May, only to begin plunging in value within a few days, I hoped somebody of note would speak out publicly to take personal responsibility for losing money on this stock, rather than pointing fingers at others. A few days ago, it happened.
Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks basketball team, posted on his blog in response to a column in which Andrew Ross Sorkin of the New York Times pinned the blame on David Ebersman, Facebook’s chief financial officer.
Cuban said: “I bought and sold FB shares as a trade, not an investment. I lost money. When the stock didn’t bounce as I thought/hoped it would, I realised I was wrong and got out. It wasn’t the fault of the FB CFO that I lost money. It was my fault. I know that no one sells me shares of stock because they expect the price of the stock to go up. So someone saw me coming and they sold me the stock. That is the way the stock market works. When you sit at the trading terminal you look for the sucker. When you don’t see one, it’s you. In this case it was me.”
His comments ring true for individuals of lesser means, too.
As John Brooks wrote in his epic 1973 book, The Go-Go Years, about Wall Street during the 1960s: “In the nature of things, the amateur investor remains and probably will remain at a certain disadvantage in relation to the professional. Perhaps his best protection lies in knowledge of that fact itself.”
In spite of shareholder lawsuits filed against Facebook, I’ve seen no indication the company’s executives lied to the public about its performance or prospects. Facebook’s prospectus warned about the risks.
So where might be the bottom for Facebook’s shares? The stock was recently selling for about $19, giving the company a $46bn market value. Facebook isn’t going broke, or at least not anytime soon.
Last year, Facebook reported $1bn of net income. Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that Facebook deserves to trade for 14 times that much, $14bn&. That’s less than one-third of the market capitalisation now. And that may be generous, considering Facebook reported a net loss last quarter.
While these are simplistic gauges, they do illustrate that the stock could still have a long way to fall. My guess is a price in the single digits might be worth a flier, and that there is still a huge amount of risk in the shares now.
In an email, Cuban said he wrote his blog post because “I just get annoyed by talking heads in media throwing punches without any real substance.” Asked why he bought the stock, he said: “I thought that there would be traders who would trade the psychology and hype of the stock. Turns out I was the only one trading that way.” Pointing fingers at others, he said, is “the easy way out.”
As for investing advice for the masses, particularly on newly minted stocks, Cuban said: “You don’t know enough to invest in individual stocks. You are gambling. If that suits you, great. Go for it. You might win. But realise that no one sells stocks expecting you to make money on the deal.”
So who is to blame if you lost money on Facebook? The fault is entirely your own. This isn’t a game for crybabies.
— Bloomberg Jonathan Weil is a Bloomberg View columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
