House prices may plunge by a further 15%
This is the view of some economists surveyed by the Irish Examiner, many of whom believe the biggest challenge facing the Government in 2010 will be dealing with public sector unrest.
As to when Ireland will exit recession Dermot O’Leary of Goodbody Stockbrokers believes this will happen in the middle of 2010 while Mike Butler of Bloxham said it could be the first half of 2011.
Ulster Bank chief economist Simon Barry said the standard approach internationally in defining the end of recession is the resumption of positive quarterly GDP growth.
“While GDP growth was positive in Q3 [third quarter] in Ireland, the reality is that there is scant evidence of a pick-up here. Consumer, government and investment spending all fell in the third quarter, as did exports. The positive GDP outcome was largely a function of a huge fall in imports, making the recorded rise in GDP more of a statistical mirage than any material improvement in the underlying state of the economy.
“We will probably have to wait until the second half of next year for indications of broad-based improvement in Irish economic conditions. In the meantime, it is really only the multi-national-dominated sectors that are showing any signs of revival,” he said.
Responses to when the European Central Bank will increase rates again from their record low of 1% were mixed.
