Not easy for green shoots to peek through

ESRI, the government think-tank, offered some cheer this week when it said the economy could hit an impressive spurt of growth after 2011 growing by 5% on average up to and including 2015.

Before getting too carried away, however, that projection is strongly underpinned by the view that the global recession will end in 2010, paving the way for the much vaunted term, the green shoots of recovery.

Those with long memories know that green shoots have tantalised in the economic sense in the past, as over anxious forecasters jump too far ahead of what economies are actually delivering.