Dollar to drop as election cycle kicks in

ECONOMIC factors, not the political affiliation of the next US President, will likely determine dollar direction over the next few years. So what is the economic outlook for America post-election?

Let's look at the stock market first. Historically, US stock markets tend to post their strongest gains in the two years preceding an election. This is what we call the 'election cycle'.

To date, this term of office has broadly followed the 'election cycle' the first two years of George W Bush's term were characterised by falling stock prices and anaemic economic growth; whereas the last two years have seen the White House pursue growth at all costs.