The North has most to lose from any hard border
Her own trade promotion organisation InvestNI has many of the answers.
With reference to the frequently-asked questions on the impact of Brexit, InvestNI has said that 75% of the North’s manufacturing exports goes to three countries.
The Republic accounts for £2.1bn (€2.5bn) in sales of goods; Germany accounts for £337 million (€399m); while France accounts for £296m (€350) in exports.
If there is one thing the Brexit referendum campaign has taught us is that emotion trumps rational analysis.
But, when the party is over, the clean-up has to be done and the rational analysis of paying the cost has to be faced. Hence, the peremptory rejection by First Minister Foster of Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s idea for a North-South Brexit forum to do the rational analysis and mitigate its negative impact seems delusional in the extreme.
The fact that she reiterated her stance at the British-Irish Council in Cardiff last week indicates that the penny still has not dropped.
Any return of a so-called hard border will create extreme disruption for the ordinary man and woman either side of the border.
It will drive business away, increase unemployment and force an even higher reliance on the financial subvention from Westminster to keep the North’s economy afloat.
Any cursory look at the cross-border trade shows the extent of everyday trading across a wide range of products and services.
Those goods and services include agri-food and drink products, plastics, coal, legitimate trade in fuel, paper, clothing, electrical goods, pharmaceuticals, and computers.
Cross-border trade in goods and services has grown exponentially over the past 23 years since the border customs posts have been dismantled. It now stands at approximately €6bn.
Farmers, in particular, will bear the brunt of the Brexit fallout.
Currently, Northern farmers ship approximately €500m worth of their produce to the Republic each year.
According to the Department of Enterprise Trade and Investment, the sector also includes the North’s biggest manufacturing industry, with sales totalling more than £4.5bn (€5.33bn).
As many as 100,000 jobs are supported by the agri-food sector, including farming, fishing, retail, and distribution.
Michael Bell, director of the industry group Northern Ireland Food and Drink Association said that NIFDA was “very concerned” about the lack of debate in the North about the effect a potential UK exit from the EU could have on the local food sector.
Mr Bell went on to say that “the biggest cloud on the horizon is the Brexit”.
Sensibly, the Taoiseach continues to focus on ways to mitigate the downside for Irish exporters.
He has asked Minister for Finance Michael Noonan and Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Paschal Donohoe to ensure that the upcoming budget in October is “shaped by, and addresses, the challenges resulting” from the UK Brexit vote “and to set out a national economic response”.
Last year, €1.8bn of manufactured goods and agri-food products were sold in the North from the Republic.
And whereas this is less than 2% of our total goods exports, it has much higher significance for the many small traders either side of the border that daily go about their business trading all the commodities of life with each other.
Re-introducing a customs border would create extensive hassle for all concerned, including the customs and police authorities, who would have the unenviable task of trying to implement the many border crossings across the six counties.
* John Whelan is a leading expert on trade.
