Is reigning champ Enable vulnerable to the Tiger ‘bounce’ factor at Prix de l'arc De Triomphe?
The Prix de l'arc De Triomphe returns to Longchamp this weekend with four-year-old mare Enable a ridiculously short-priced favourite to repeat her victory of last year.
The spear that is the European flat racing season finally reaches the pointy end this weekend.
For most of the year this weapon has been a little on the blunt side with only Alpha Centauri and Roaring Lion truly differentiating themselves as true champions among a moderate generation of milers and middle-distance contenders.
Thankfully, there have been recent signs of late-season redemption for the class of 2018. The juvenile division, specifically, has thrown up positive indicators that we might be on the verge of a vintage classic and Longchamp tomorrow stages Europe’s greatest flat race, the Prix De l’Arc De Triomphe, the climax of a two-day Group One extravaganza.
===========Longchamp: Will the renovation pay off?
The total prizemoney for the next two days touches €10 million which is twice that on offer during the recent Irish Champions weekend.
The Arc alone is worth €3 million to the winning owner. Although this ranks the race only third in global value behind the relatively recent innovations, the Dubai and Pegasus World Cup races, those who cherish their horse racing heritage understand that the prestige of the Arc makes it worth at least twice as much as those two ‘Johnny come lately’ contests combined.
This year the race returns to its natural wooded habitat of the Bois De Boulogne near central Paris after a two-year sojourn at Chantilly while Longchamp underwent €130 million makeover.
Predictably, the new design is bathed in Gallic flair. The new ‘transparent’ stand structure was inspired, according to the architect Dominique Perrault, by the “movement of a galloping horse and the colour scheme by the reds and golds of the Autumn leaves in October.” The marketing people at the Curragh have a hard act to follow when their course relaunches next spring.
But even in France massive capital investment must be funded and the 60,000 paying attendees now face entry charges of €75, ten times that of an equivalent ticket three years ago. Half the Sunday racegoers will travel from overseas, mainly from Britain, so it is a risky pricing strategy for a festival long known for outstanding quality at low cost. With the overhanging possibility of a reintroduction of disruptive passport checks over, under and across the English-channel the price increases could represent a clear and present danger to the international character long associated with the first October Sunday in Paris. That new autumnal grandstand colour scheme really needs to impress.
==========Will Enable bounce like Tiger?
The four-year-old mare Enable is a short-priced favourite to repeat her Arc victory of last year. Of course, an even money winner is always a better outcome than a 20/1 loser and by Monday she may well have proven she was, in retrospect, a nailed on, cast iron certainty. But when betting on horses the overriding mission is to find harmony between value and probability and there are several compelling reasons to oppose John Gosden’s mare at odds that skinny. The first is trend and tradition.
The Arc is a difficult race to win more than once and there have been relatively few multiple winners since its inception in 1920. The most recent was that other wonder filly, Treve, who completed the double four years ago for Criquette Head, but she was only the first since Alleged repeated for Vincent O’Brien forty years ago.
Next is the quality of her opponents. As a three-year-old filly last year she received all the gender and age allowances and carried ten pounds less than the older colts. This time the weight advantage is evaporated and although a huge threat was removed when Cracksman was a late defector, Waldgeist, Sea of Class and Kew Gardens all look ready, willing and able to cut Enable’s cabbage.
Waldgeist represents the stable of Andre Fabre, who between 1987 (Trempolino) and 2006 (Rail Link) won the race eight times, a record for any trainer. The dozen blank years since his last victory will weigh heavily on Fabre but Waldgeist could easily restart the sequence. Unbeaten in his last four races, including the dependable trial race, the Prix Foy, three weeks ago. He has something to find to find on the formbook, but he is still improving and after a gentle summer he arrives here fresh, fit and well.
The final and potentially most serious obstacle to an Enable repeat is that intangible ‘bounce’ factor - when a promising return from absence is followed by a flat performance next time out. Think of Tiger Woods’ lacklustre performance in the Ryder Cup hot on the heels of his first victory in five years.
A knee injury in early May derailed a season of lofty ambition for Enable and victory in a comeback race at Kempton last month was her first racecourse appearance in almost a year. She won well enough, but the conditions entitled her to do just that and the enthusiastic and joyous reaction to her return was exaggerated. If the great Tiger Woods can bounce that badly in Paris, then a mere racehorse certainly can too.
=========Small horse or a faraway horse?
Like the Arc De Triomphe, Sunday’s big five-furlong Group One sprint, the Prix de l’Abbaye, is a difficult race to win more than once. Only four horses have ever doubled up including Dermot Weld’s great warrior, Committed in the 1980s. This year it is the turn of Charlie Hill’s Battaash, bidding to follow up on his incredibly impressive victory at Chantilly last year.
This charismatic and unpredictable horse has no future as a stallion as he was gelded at two to try to moderate his appalling behaviour, so he could be coming back here for years. The operation only half cured the problem and he could either rocket home or try to run back to the stables.
The Prix de l’Abbaye is one of the quirkiest Group One races in the world for spectators, starting from behind bushes on the very far side of the course with the horses looking like ants from the far off and newly transparent grandstands. Today’s Prix Du Cadran on the other hand, the French equivalent of the Ascot Gold Cup, laps the course almost in touching distance of the crowd. Enter Willie Mullins.
Jump racing’s greatest genius has enjoyed picking off easy meat on the flat recently and could hardly believe his luck when he saw how badly this lucrative Group One contest had cut up. Two of Europe’s better stayers, Stradivarius and Vazirabad, are routed elsewhere so there are just eight entries and one of them, Max Dynamite, is trained by Mullins in Carlow. Both the ground and the trip suit him, and it will be a surprise if he is not involved at the pointy end of this marathon.
