O'Gara: This Rugby World Cup is about to get properly serious

Sit steady and stop fidgeting. The World Cup is about to get properly serious. With the quarter-finals, it will all kick-off. Is there a major ingredient missing? Let’s call a spade a spade: it’s a lot more intriguing with Japan, rather than Scotland or Argentina.

Before the tournament started, I stated here that Ireland needed to get two 80 minutes right – against Scotland and in the quarter-final. That’s the most salient point of the week.

Even reaching beyond current indicators, there’s not enough indisputable evidence to definitively call any of the four quarters. The two games most would call are New Zealand beating Ireland and the Springboks besting Japan, but we could make convincing cases for both to go the other way.

Imagine the bounce Ireland get out of beating New Zealand tomorrow?

And it wouldn’t surprise if Ireland were to beat New Zealand; but it would surprise me if they went on to win the World Cup. I’m not sure they’ve the form and the playing minutes to do this three times more. But these are career moments. The opportunities are there for people.

I don’t think Ireland are going to alter their game plan dramatically, and the selection of the tried and trusted would indicate that. I am sure Ireland will present some brilliant ideas but when things are boiled down, New Zealand have the better cattle.

It’s an old Kiwi saying: You’re only as good as the cattle you have. And the prize herd is in New Zealand. Their consistent capacity to get the moment right is always impressive. Not to over-egg it, just to get it dead on.

That’s such an under-rated skill. If the game was played on paper, New Zealand would win but at the moment, their form is also better, their players have more rugby in them, and they are more battle-hardened than Ireland.

Momentum is important in these tournaments. But even in individual games, it’s so hard to recover momentum if you feel it slipping away.

If you don’t win collisions in the first 10 minutes, if your body language is a small bit off, if the opposition has more energy, it’s so hard to wrestle that back.

I don’t know if there is an Irish hesitancy about themselves now that wasn’t anywhere to be seen a year ago. But I have a thought on the emotion of the occasion tomorrow: There will be a slight fear factor there for the All Blacks in terms of how emotional Ireland will be. Especially if they get the pitch of that just right.

The All Blacks won’t be emotional — Ireland will be. The All Blacks will bank on Ireland being over-eager but if Ireland get that right, it’s a powerful thing and an important advantage. However, if it tips over the edge it becomes hugely detrimental. Invariably the All Blacks get that mix right.

Emotion plays no part in their week until the Haka starts. It could be a proper belting test match. By that I mean we need to see the lead swap a few times. When a team gets challenged and overtaken, it’s so different mentally. I think that might happen.

The All Blacks will show up, Ireland will too — the difference is we’ve faced Scotland and Japan, lost one of them, and the warm-up games didn’t give us much. Ireland will have players in 120-odd minutes territory in terms of real gametime.

Whereas the All Blacks are ready for battle. The game will be decided in the last 20 minutes and there could be carnage with bodies everywhere.

But there is so much rich tactical discussion points that Ireland have to be in with a shout. When Andy Farrell said this week that to beat the All Blacks you have to score a lot of points, I took that as an indicator that Jordan Larmour was starting but Irish management are looking at this in terms of what will still be on the pitch and making an impact after the hour.

Larmour and Tadhg Beirne, Carbery and Rhys Ruddock will provide fresh impetus and spark off the bench. The props too. Rob Kearney is Joe’s Mr Ronseal: He does what it says in the tin. He is Schmidt’s man for a reason.

Given the fast track we expect, the way Ireland went after the game in Chicago may offer more of an insight into their thinking than the win in Dublin a year ago. Identifying the All Black weakness is the key bit. Had things turned out as expected, Ireland might be looking at the South African back three and looking for chinks there.

Who is the All Black hammer they are going after? They have less a totem and more an even spread of quality. The wingers are international novices but George Bridge and Sevu Reece have quickly made it a massive area of strength for the All Blacks. What I saw on a daily basis in Christchurch, people just haven’t seen that.

If Bridge and Reece were available to Ireland, they’d probably both be playing - with Earlsie at 13. Sevu is a pure football striker, a try getter, but you’ve to be aware this is his first major competition. I knew after my first week with the Crusaders that George Bridge was going to be an All Black.

It speaks volumes for the respect and trust which Steve Hansen has in him that he is starting and Rieke Ioane isn’t. Bridge is fast, brave, athletic, and has a great rugby brain. He is a dream to coach, but I ended up saying that about so many of the Crusaders’ All Blacks.

Humility is such a starting point for a player, and they have it in spades — acknowledging that they can get better. If you think you’re the bee’s knees at 23, well good luck to you. Perhaps Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown have nurtured the same values in the Japan players. Everything I have seen from the squad would suggest they are hungry to learn and get better.

In spite of all the hype about their progress to the quarter-finals, I honestly don’t think they are actually getting the credit they deserve. I don’t believe there’s ever been a Tier 2 nation that has taken two Tier 1 scalps in the pool phase and not since Western Samoa in 1991 has an underdog been so wildly entertaining doing so!

I can’t wait to see what Brown has come up with in terms of a game plan for Sunday against South Africa. The Boks are massive, with an intimidating defensive system, but the way Japan move the point of contact, I think there could be something juicy in them.

Changing the point of contact so well, identifying where the space is and then flooding it with a lot of numbers is something they do so well. Imagine what an exciting extra Japan would be for the Six (Seven?) Nations.

South Africa stack the front line of defence with an awful lot of numbers, but it’s not as if there’s one Japanese finding a gap. Against Ireland and Scotland, there were three or four players attacking the space. If Sunday was a home test match, Japan might be looking for the biggest pitch they could find to suit their game and stretch the Boks.

But it’s fanciful to overlook the fact that South Africa destroyed Japan 41-7 in Japan in a WC warm-up, even if Jamie Joseph was keeping something up his sleeve. For all the logic one can attach to the Boks beating Japan, there’s zero logic in thinking France will beat Wales — but I believe it will happen.

First up tomorrow, England may need extra time to shake off those dogged Wallabies too. Semi-final pairings of England-New Zealand and France-South Africa? Hopefully not.

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