Covid-19 modelling group expects social distancing measures 'for a long time' to flatten curve

The head of the State's Covid-19 modelling group has said we should not be expecting a surge or peak in the number cases.

It comes as the National Public Health Emergency Team meets today to decide on whether restrictions should continue.

It is likely to formally recommend an extension of the measures, due to end on Sunday, for several more weeks.

Professor Phillip Nolan said the number of cases should take a long time to appear.

Prof. Nolan said: "We shouldn't be expecting a surge, we should flatten this curve so much that we are distributing over a long period of time and there isn't an identifiable surge or peak within that."

He added that we will be social-distancing for a "considerable" period of time in order to flatten the curve and reduce the strain on the health service.

Prof. Nolan said: "We've done extraordinarily well in getting that reproduction number down so close to one, we really need to keep that up.

"First of all, to make sure precisely where we are, and secondly, we will be requiring very strong social distancing measures for a long period of time in order to keep the disease suppressed for the length of time that we need to."

The future of restrictions on travel, work and movement during the Covid-19 emergency will be known later.

The latest restrictions in operation since Friday, March 27 mandate that everyone should stay at home, only leaving to:
• Shop for essential food and household goods;
• Attend medical appointments, collect medicine or other health products;
• Care for children, older people or other vulnerable people - this excludes social family visits;
• Exercise outdoors - within 2kms of your home and only with members of your own household, keeping 2 metres distance between you and other people
• Travel to work if you provide an essential service - be sure to practice social distancing

263 people in the Republic have now died after contracting Covid-19, with a further 26 patients confirmed to have lost their lives yesterday.

The total number of diagnosed cases has risen to 6,574.

Chief medical officer Tony Holohan said a decision will be made later today on restrictions.

Dr Holohan said: "Based on some of the information we have available from the modelling team, that will improve our ability to, if you like, consider that and make a recommendation which in the first instance we will be sharing with the minister and the Taoiseach and government.

"So that's two groups of issues if you like, that feed into our assessment around measures, how long to keep them in place and what should follow in terms of any change in those measures and then also the length of time that they should apply."

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