Crisis in Crimea - Careering towards calamity

Western opinion believes almost unanimously that Sunday’s referendum in Crimea was fixed, or at the very least that the result was achieved through intimidation, as vehemently as Russia insists it was a legitimate vote carried out in unquestionable, free circumstances.

That pro-Moscow officials in Crimea say the proposal to secede from Ukraine and submit to Russia’s tender mercies was endorsed by 97% of voters gives an air of North Korean fantasy to the proceedings, no matter what the most ardent voices in Moscow will claim.

The intractability of the crisis is underlined as Russia can point to an equally absolute view among those who find its antidemocratic authoritarianism in Ukraine unacceptable. Opposition to President Putin’s trampling of Ukraine is vocal but for the moment limited to expressions of indignation and the relatively benign impact of imposing travel bans and asset freezes against 21 officials from Russia or Ukraine.

There is however the potential, and the polarised positions of all lead actors point to this, for a conflict on the scale not seen since the days when American president Ronald Reagan called the old Soviet Union the “evil empire”.

There is a significant difference today though. Europe is united in a way that it may not have been then and seems determined to welcome those who would leave a repressive Russia for its more benign model of government and opportunity. How that ideal is made real is another matter entirely, especially as Mr Putin seems determined to keep pushing and pushing until his ambitions are thwarted, however that might happen.

Ireland’s position is different too. Today we are inextricably linked to Europe but face the prospect of a significant blow to our economy if the EU introduces business sanctions. That would hit the €640m worth of goods or services we exported to Russia last year. There would be inevitable consequences too if Russia responded by curtailing energy supplies to Europe.

However, this crisis has the capacity to escalate well beyond anything as unfortunate as the loss of a market in Russia. We may find there is a cost for our EU membership that we had not anticipated.

The crisis has already had an economic impact on Russia. The ruble has fallen by more than 10% since Russian troops moved into Crimea, and estimates suggest that Putin’s government has spent more than $10bn (€7.17bn, or the equivalent of 362bn rubles) of its foreign currency reserves supporting the currency.

What seems certain though is that Russia, and its supporters in Crimea, are so utterly opposed to the view that Ukraine should be allowed determine its own future that we are, as British foreign secretary William Hague warned yesterday, on the cusp of a renewed Cold War between the West and Russia. The impact that could have on our world and millions of lives should not be underestimated.

At the moment, just as Europe’s diplomatic corps was almost exactly 100 years ago, we are careering towards something almost unfathomable and utterly disastrous. Let us all hope that the obvious lesson is understood and that sanity prevails.