Cameron trying to slay nationalist dragon that he unleashed
WITH Britain increasingly embracing the idea of exiting the EU, David Cameron is losing control of events as he desperately tries to slay the dragon of nationalism he himself unleashed.
Branded a political opportunist by enemies — and some of his own allies — for always opting for the quick fix rather than a strategic vision, Cameron’s gamble to offer a referendum in order to head-off another Tory civil war over Europe could well prove a fatal roll of the dice.
The PM gave into demands for an in-out poll to stop his rabidly anti-EU Tory flank turning on him, to spike the appeal of Ukip, and to wrong foot Labour.
And, at least temporarily, he managed to achieve all three objectives, but short-term survival has left him with a long-term headache as the rush for Europe’s out door gathers pace.
Cameron is already in retreat over his so-called red line negotiations with Europe where even the few sympathetic EU leaders say they have no idea what his targets are, and he Tory right is once again sensing blood.
With a violently anti-Brussels national press setting the parameters of a campaign which the broadcast media will then follow, the deeply isolationist mood in country means the outcome could well be a close call.
And Brexit would have major ramifications for Ireland as, after the US, Britain is our biggest export market. sucking in €18bn worth of goods a year.
While Dublin is loathe to admit it, Ireland also often hides behind Britannia’s skirts at Brussels bust-ups over tax harmonisation and tougher regulations of of financial services, knowing that the UK will get the bad rap for throwing a spanner in the works, but the Republic will reap the benefits without needing to get its hands, or reputation as a good little European, dirty.
So, what does Cameron want? In reality the best he can hope for is a face-saving series of minor concessions that he will then attempt to dress-up as something far more substantial than it is.
The British prime minister now finds himself in the bizarre position of having to bring forward the referendum by a year to next autumn in order to combat the uncertainty surrounding the economy caused by his decision to hold the referendum in the first place.
Cameron will also head the “stay-in” campaign, fighting on a platform that life would be too risky for Britain outside the EU, but the Tory leader is the very person who has opened that door to a riskier world — and a growing number of British people want to rush through it.
The latest poll showed that 71% of Conservative supporters would vote to leave, with just 24% wishing to remain.
The traditionally pro-EU Labour vote cannot be taken for granted either as it suffered badly for not offering an EU poll in its manifesto for May’s general election and saw a major hemorrhaging of support to Ukip in its northern English heartlands as a result.
Downing Street has even managed to botch the actual wording of the referendum question after the electoral commission demanded changes and Cameron capitulated to them — as he previously did to the SNP over the Scottish independence question — and now the the choice to be put to voters is seen to slightly favour withdrawal.
Ironically the Euro-hating wing of Tory party is facing the same accusations of settling for an illusion of a synthetic sovereignty that they threw at the Scottish nationalists last year.
Whatever the bluster, Scotland would never have been independent if it had voted yes in the referendum as its interest rates — and therefore its key economic policies — would have been set by the then foreign Bank of England which would only have had to take English needs into account when determining monetary policy.
The anti-exit camp argue a post-Brexit Britain would be in the same position as Norway — which in order to keep an advantageous trading deal with Brussels is subject to all the rules and regulations of the EU, without any influence in framing them.
The Norwegians call it “fax democracy” as they wait by the machine to see what new diktats have been ordered by the EU — and they still pay as much per head as Britain for being allowed trade concessions from Brussels while taking in twice as many migrants as the UK.
But the increasingly shrill anti-Brussels brigade insist that as the world’s fifth biggest economy, Britain would have a lot more cards to play in post-exit negotiations, especially as just as many Continental jobs depend on trade with the UK as the 3.5m British jobs which depend on Europe.
Lowering expectations all the way, Cameron hopes to prise some spoils from Brussels in exchange for agreeing to treaty changes to deepen the eurozone that need EU-wide approval.
But Cameron’s leverage is severely limited as he back peddles from wholly redefining Britain’s relationship with Europe, to calling for change on four core issues. London wants a British opt-out on the European aim of an “ever closer union”, but as this is an EU aspiration and Brussels excels in twisting language to mean whatever people want it to, this should be a easy, but ultimately meaningless, win for the UK.
Downing St has already raised the white flag on immigration control, breaking free of workplace directives and stopping migrants claiming in-work benefits for four years, and now just talks vaguely about mild reform of cross-border employment standards.
Britain wants an explicit statement the EU is a multi-currency area and that it should not have to pay for future bailouts within the eurozone.
And London also wants national parliaments to be able to “red flag” Brussels directives which would then have to be redrawn.
But whatever concessions Britain gets will be on a promise anyway as no treaty changes will be able to be ratified before the vote which will again play into the hands of the anti-EU campaign as they warn that the only thing worse than a post-dated cheque is a post-dated cheque of very little value.
Two years of intense horse trading would then follow any decision to leave as Brussels would be plunged into unknown territory with 1.3m Britons stranded in an un-British EU, and some 2m Europeans left on UK shores with the English — the people Germans disparagingly refer to as “the island monkeys”.
Due to the fact Ireland fought its way out of the UK a century ago, bilateral work and travel deals will hold, but moves by the Tory Europhobes to strip the 340,000 Irish citizens in the UK of their lifelong right to vote in the EU poll shows how ugly and xenophobic the campaign will become.
The great game now gathers pace as Cameron writes to European Council president Donald Tusk next week, finally setting out his demands and thus getting the dice rolling.
Brexit could well become a self-fulfilling prophesy as an almost accidental exit is achieved — one triggered by raw emotion rather than economic reality.
And in that case Cameron will have no one to blame but himself, because, unlike the St George of England he seeks to emulate as national champion, he let the dragon of nationalism slay him.
