Government options bring prospect of major change
There is the grand coalition and there is the minority government. Both options bring the prospect of major change, but whether such change will be substantially positive is still up for grabs.
The grand coalition is the option that dare not speak its name in either of the two big parties. Fianna Fáil, in particular, would have problems keeping everybody on board if Micheál Martin opted to bite the bullet and accept it as the inevitable trajectory for his party.
An ard fheis would be required to give authority to such a decision. Inevitably, some would rebel against it and either head off into the sunset, or put a call into their local Sinn Féin constituency office. Once more in the great tradition of Irish politics and culture, a new dawn would be marked by The Split.
Martin would also have a problem relaying to those who voted for the party last week that he was now breaking Promise Number One — under no circumstances would the party be governing with the oul enemy.
If there is a will, and if all the barriers could be surmounted, the establishment of a grand coalition, would, after 80 years, finally realign Irish politics along ideological lines.
Over the last 30 years, the dominance of the two big parties has been in decline, although last week’s poll did see their combined vote dip below 50% for the first time. A coming together would be a positive development certainly in opening up the possibility of injecting greater substance in political debate.
The marriage would be of the shotgun variety. Both parties would tread warily.
Fianna Fáil’s biggest concern is that it would be leaving behind fertile ground for Sinn Féin to claim as its own, as the party takes the mantle of the main opposition force.
Sinn Féin would also reap major political capital over the course of five years of a Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil government. For it would be inevitable that such an administration, with a relatively solid majority, would be a magnet for petty scandals involving cronyism, minor corruption and feather bedding.
The chances of a grand coalition reforming Irish politics are virtually zero. If the outgoing coalition were arrogant — as claimed by many — then an incoming grand coalition would eventually make Conor McGregor look like Little Bo Peep. This would be manna for the Shinners, but of questionable value to the rest of the country. It may, however, be the price for an ideological alignment.
As of now, the grand coalition is being pushed up the long finger by both parties, but what is the alternative?
A minority Fine Gael government, short a majority by at least 25 seats, would be a novelty. Some claim that the absence of strong government would lead to instability, or even, as Fine Gael’s election campaign had it, chaos.
There is another view that suggests it might herald a new form of politics. On Monday, Micheál Martin was quick out of the blocks to look gallantly towards a potentially new way of doing business. He issued a statement as if he was a born again reformer who hadn’t spent 14 years at the cabinet table.
“The failure to implement any meaningful political reform remains one of the biggest broken promises of the outgoing government,” he said. “More seriously than this is the fact that a failure to implement real reform carries with it a risk we will continue to repeat the mistakes of the past.”
The statements represent a signpost down the road towards a Dáil that finally takes its place as a forum to which the executive of the day is answerable. This would certainly herald the kind of representative politics that has been absent for decades.
There would be greater scrutiny of legislation, and in the area of budgets, the whole process would be transformed by ensuring real consultation prior to formulating specific plans.
Shane Ross noted the positive aspects in such a scenario. “This is a very welcome result,” he told RTÉ Radio on Monday. “We’re going to see the Dáil for the first time in many years actually deciding legislation. We’re going to see people who are in minorities having their voice counted.”
A minority government would thus be forced to deal with the Oireachtas as a partner in government, rather than an irritating rubber stamp. Not only would the executive be forced to dismount its high horse, but many elements of the opposition would be forced to descend from the high ground of righteous indignation down to the lowlands where change is actually affected through legislation.
For decades various parties have promised at elections that should they be granted access to the levers of power they would transmogrify into paragons of openness, transparency and accountability. By and large, the promise was entirely false. But what if the government of the day was forced by circumstance to follow through on that promise?
On the downside, there would be precious little ideological alignment, but it remains to be seen whether or not that would be a bad thing.
The people, in their wisdom, have spoken. They have not, as some claim, effected a revolutionary change in politics. All they have really done is pass judgment on the outgoing coalition. In doing so, they have reconfigured the numbers in the Dáil to a point where something completely new is inevitable.
We’ll just have to wait some weeks before finding out what exactly that is.
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