Micheál Martin caught on horns of dilemma

A deal between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael won’t be easy, but is still necessary, says political editor Daniel McConnell

SO it finally happened. It only took 34 days; significant pressure from independent TDs; and one Irish Examiner front-page story to bring temporary Taoiseach Enda Kenny and his new love interest Micheál Martin together.

On Thursday, Martin made a call to Enda, who promptly called him back with the all- important suggestion that they might hook up for a chat. But like two teenage boys afraid of looking foolish in front of their mates, a rather pathetic spat occurred over who made the first move.

Juvenile antics aside, at least a sense of reality has entered the proceedings. As I have been saying since the result of the election was known, a deal of some form between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is needed. It is that or a second election, which could take place before the end of May.

That deal is needed for several reasons.

Firstly, the decision by the third-biggest block of votes in the Dáil, Sinn Féin, to absolve itself of the grown-up business of trying to form a government, has put the onus on the two other big parties to step up. The hard left Independents and so-called anti-austerity TDs have also ruled themselves out.

Catherine Murphy, Stephen Donnelly, and Róisín Shortall of the Social Democrats. The party bowed out of what it deemed a ‘sham process’ of talks.

Others, such as the Greens and Social Democrats, gave initial glances at talks but have since bowed out. I have some sympathy with the position of the Social Democrats, who refused to partake in what they rightly called a sham process, because Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil were refusing to speak to each other.

Secondly, as we well know by now, no matter what possible combination was being speculated about by Fine Gael ministers, Enda Kenny was still a long way short of the numbers needed to become Taoiseach.

As things stand, Kenny has the confirmed support of 50 Fine Gael TDs plus Michael Lowry — a full 28 short of a Dáil majority.

The support of 15 Independents would make it 66, and there is no guarantee of keeping all of this diverse group on board.

Martin was and is even further behind. A month on from the election, he has only the 43 Fianna Fáil votes confirmed and so far not one extra vote has been added to his list.

When the first vote happened on March 10, and Martin only got the 43 FF votes, that reality certainly fixed the boundary to the march of his party’s victory claims.

However unlikely a Fine Gael minority Government may be, a minority Fianna Fáil one will be virtually impossible to achieve.

Kenny and Fine Gael’s approach has been to turn over every stone, going to any possible length to try and secure the support of the Independents. This was evidenced in their description of talks as being a genuine partnership, rather than his party being propped up by other TDs. It was also evidenced by Kenny’s 45-minute chat with Kerry TD Michael Healy-Rae on Wednesday, after a nasty spat with Health Minister Leo Varadkar during the talks. Kenny felt he could not afford to lose anyone.

Eamon Ryan and Catherine Martin of the Green Party, which gave an initial glance at the negotiations on forming a government, before bowing out.

Similarly, the journey to Waterford on Wednesday night by Defence Minister Simon Coveney to meet TD John Halligan and his team was significant.

Halligan, who writes in the Irish Examiner today, indicated earlier in the week that he wasn’t happy with the way things were going with the talks, and clearly Coveney and FG felt it was worth the trek. That trek came after 10 or so hours of talks in Government Buildings, so was no mean feat.

Let’s ask an important question.

Just why are Fine Gael and Kenny acting in what appears to be a desperate way?

Bristling at suggestions that he and they are squatting in Government Buildings, it is clear that they want to stay in power and are willing to concede almost anything to achieve that.

Over the past month, Kenny has made several overtures to Martin both in the Dáil and at the White House, but has had the door closed firmly in his face on every occasion.

There is some feeling that Fine Gael is also trying to insulate itself — should a second election be necessary — so that it is the party which has done everything possible to form a Government. Yet Kenny’s insistence that the party wouldn’t support a Fianna Fáil minority government smacked of the arrogant high-handedness which lost it the election. It also opened him to accusations of hypocrisy.

If he was not willing to support a FF-led administration from Opposition, why then permit them access to civil servants in Government Buildings during their talks with the Independents, when they begin on Monday?

The only way a Martin-led government could work is if Kenny and Fine Gael support it. If they are ruling that out, why then facilitate the talks? It doesn’t make sense.

But what does all of this mean for Martin?

He was spurred on to ring Kenny on Thursday after our lead story that morning which suggested Kenny was thinking about deferring the vote for taoiseach, due to take place next Wednesday.

He has insisted that no talks between himself and Kenny will begin until after Wednesday, when he has concluded his talks with the Independents.

Mary Lou McDonald and Gerry Adams of Sinn Féin. The party’s decision to absolve itself of the business of trying to form a government put the onus on Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

Martin is in something of a bind, as several of his chief lieutenants, including Barry Cowen, Seán Fleming, and Thomas Byrne, have said that whoever gets more votes on Wednesday should be allowed room to form a government.

So, should Kenny maintain his lead if the vote is taken, will Martin then do as his underlings have suggested and sign up to support a Fine Gael minority government?

There are obvious benefits in doing so. He can contain the opponents in his own party who are opposed to a full coalition.

Although in opposition, Fianna Fáil would have a huge influence on government policy, particularly in the drafting of a budget in October.

It would also help them keep Sinn Féin from becoming the lead party in opposition, which would happen were a grand coalition to be formed.

It would also put Fianna Fáil in a strong position going into an election in 18 months to two years.

If Martin and his enlarged party fail to support a minority Fine Gael government, they will stand accused of forcing a second election because they put their party interests ahead of the country’s needs.

Post-Wednesday, should the vote for taoiseach go ahead, and Kenny comes out ahead, Martin will have no choice but to support his re-election or force that second election which nobody wants.