Republicans fear Donald Trump's nomination will secure White House for Hillary Clinton
A ‘Dump Trump’ heave is underway among US Republicans to knock billionaire Donald Trump off his perch in the White House race, but they may have kept their powder dry too long. It’s now a battle that could backfire for the party, and the rest of its candidates, in the 2016 election.
Trump was supposed to have imploded months ago. But he’s not just still standing, he’s surging. After the terrorist attacks in Paris, many people believed that his supporters would instead opt for an experienced candidate to fight the election.
The opposite has happened.
A Reuters poll less than a week after the attacks asked voters which of the 14 Republican candidates was best suited to deal with the threat of terrorism, and 36% opted for Trump. Since then, he has upped his incendiary rhetoric.
Back in the sumer, when he kicked off his campaign by calling Mexican immigrants rapists and criminals, many people thought it couldn’t get worse.
But in the wake of the Islamic State (IS) attacks on Paris, he has supported setting up a database for tracking American Muslims, though he has since backtracked somewhat. While he would not rule out a database on all Muslims, for now he wants it for Syrian refugees.
Then, he erroneously claimed he witnessed thousands of Muslims in New Jersey celebrating the fall of New York’s World Trade Center on 9/11.
Instead of denouncing this, Republican leaders were either silent or timid in their responses, leading The Washington Post to brand them cowards: “Republican leaders look away.
And Trump surges in the polls, regaining the lead he had lost before the Paris attacks. For Republican leaders and rival candidates, these are the wages of cowardice.”
A day later, The New York Times excoriated Trump and his party: “His right to spew nonsense is protected by the Constitution, but... history teaches that failing to hold a demagogue to account is a dangerous act.”
Such comments presuppose that Trump’s supporters aren’t already fully aware of this.
But that is exactly why they support him — not in spite of his demagoguery, but because of it.
The Trump malaise is merely another sign that the Republican Party has, for years, been caving to the Tea Party’s far-right agenda, leading to the inevitable rise of candidates like Trump.
Compared with Trump’s remarks, it was barely noticed that another candidate, Ben Carson, compared refugees fleeing Syria to “rabid dogs”.
Even experienced candidates are embracing some of this hysteria. Both Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz said America should focus on taking in only Syrian refugees who are Christian.
Nor are Democrats shy of jumping on the bandwagon — as evidenced by their vote in Congress, backing a Republican measure to restrict the arrival of refugees. But Republicans are tiptoeing carefully around Trump for a reason.
They know that, if they offend him, he could run as an independent, splitting the party’s vote and dooming their chances of winning the White House, thus handing the prize to presumptive Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton.
So, with Iowa’s first-in-the-nation vote to choose the party’s presidential candidate just eight weeks away, some are taking matters into their own hands to halt the Trump juggernaut.
First out of the traps was Ohio governor and presidential hopeful John Kasich, who has been languishing at single digits in polls. His campaign has unveiled a no-holds-barred internet video entitled ‘Trump’s dangerous rhetoric’.
In it, former US Air Force colonel Tom Moe paraphrases German pastor Martin Niemöller’s quote about resistance to Nazi Germany. Voters who are not Muslims or Hispanics might not care about Trump’s statements, Moe says. “But think about this: If he keeps going and he actually becomes president, he might just get around to you. And you better hope that there’s someone left to help you.”
The video appeared a day after the pro-Kasich super-PAC (political action committee) New Day for America released an ad mocking Trump’s “greatest hits,” focusing on his controversial remarks.
This is part of a $2.5m (€2.35m) ad campaign and “will be the tip of the spear against Trump”, said PAC spokesman Matt David. But an all-out anti-Trump campaign would come at a hefty price. One estimate said it could cost $20m to mount a comprehensive campaign in early voting states.
Not that money is necessarily an obstacle. The conservative Club for Growth has already spent $1m running anti-Trump ads in Iowa alone.
But, in response, The Donald is flashing his Trump card again. He has renewed his threat of a third-party run if he is not treated “fairly” by Republicans. This was despite signing a pledge over the summer that he would support the party’s eventual nominee.
“I have to be treated fairly,” Trump said, when asked about the efforts by party operatives to derail his candidacy.
Among such operatives is Liz Mair, who is planning a ‘guerrilla campaign’ to knock him out of the race. Mair, a former online communications director at the Republican National Committee, has formed Trump Card LLC “to defeat and destroy” his candidacy, according to a memo obtained by The Wall Street Journal.
“In the absence of our efforts, Trump is exceedingly unlikely to implode or be forced out of the race,” said the memo.
“The stark reality is that unless something dramatic and unconventional is done, Trump will be the Republican nominee and Hillary Clinton will become president.”
Trump’s opponents have also tried to bar him from competing in the February 9 primary in New Hampshire. Former state party chairman Fergus Cullen accused him of not being a real Republican, but this move was dismissed by the state ballot commission.
And the commission was right, of course. Trump is a real Republican. While a poll on Friday showed his lead among Republicans dropping from 43% to 31%, it may be fanciful to think his candidacy can be derailed, since he has clearly built himself a strong support base on the far right of American politics.
So the problem may no longer be one for the Republican Party alone, but, rather, for America as a whole. And while Trump’s rise will likely boost the Democrats in 2016, it will certainly not boost American democracy.
