Donald Trump sets the tone for Republican party debate
THE Paris attacks and the California massacre that have sent shockwaves through America and inflamed the political discourse will dominate the final public debates this year among the Democratic and Republican candidates in the race for the White House.
National security, gun control, and the fight against terrorism can be expected to spark sharp exchanges among candidates, with Republicans first off tomorrow night.
The rhetoric, particularly in the aftermath of the California killings of 14 people by radicalised Muslims living in the US, has already taken on apocalyptic tones, with talk of the country being “at war” or on a “wartime footing” and needing a “wartime president”.
When Democrats face off in their debate on Saturday, they will be anxious to show they can be equally tough on national security. After all, it was on President Barack Obama’s watch that 9/11 mastermind Osama bin Laden was successfully hunted down.
New 'tell-all' book about Toronto's Rob Ford could teach us about the rise of Donald Trump https://t.co/meSwNM0Iv9 pic.twitter.com/Q5qwLPV5zn
— Irish Examiner (@irishexaminer) December 13, 2015
But it will be a tougher sell for the Democratic candidates, who tend to see security threats facing America in more nuanced terms than Republicans, blaming lax gun control in part for enabling terrorist attacks, and refusing to blame Islam as a whole for the acts of some fanatical adherents.
In the Republican clash, sharp exchanges are likely between Donald Trump and his main rivals, Texas senator Ted Cruz and Florida senator Marco Rubio, both of whom are gaining fast in polls.
Cruz has already scored a notable victory over Trump by becoming the first of the party’s 14 candidates to knock him off his frontrunner perch in two polls, the latest one on Saturday, in Iowa, the first state to choose the party’s candidate in six weeks time.
But with Trump charging ahead in other polls, Cruz will be geared up to consolidate his position in Tuesday’s debate.
Indeed, it was emerging over the weekend that both rivals have already taken the gloves off. But Cruz will be walking a fine line, however, keen not to incur the wrath of Trump’s supporters because that’s the base he himself needs to win over.
His remarks after the California killings were clearly part of this plan to out-Trump Trump. “Our enemies are at war with us,” he declared, and “this nation needs a wartime president”.
He advocated “carpet bombing” Isis “into oblivion”, adding: “I don’t know if sand can glow in the dark, but we’re going to find out.”
But this debate will not just focus on Trump and Cruz. Rubio, who is also rising in the polls and has surged in one poll to second place in New Hampshire, will be fighting to outmanoeuvre both Trump and Cruz.
Rubio will also be going into the debate buoyed by the fact that, alone among the other Republican candidates, he is moving ahead of Clinton in the Real Clear Politics average of polls in a hypothetical general election match-up.
Indeed, with Ben Carson now losing the number two spot he once held in the Republican field, this is already looking like a three-man race to the top among Trump, Cruz and Rubio, with the two senators anxious to show in the debate that they, rather than Trump, are the kind of experienced politicians America needs in a time of crisis.
This newspaper correction regarding Donald Trump shows just how important apostrophes can … https://t.co/DjD4jbfegy pic.twitter.com/JQWUByqELm
— Irish Examiner (@irishexaminer) December 12, 2015
In the second tier of candidates, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and John Kasich, all languishing in polls, will also be fighting to gain momentum, along with Carly Fiorina and Rand Paul. The remaining candidates have not won enough support in polls to qualify for the debate.
In this second tier, much of the focus will be on Bush, once the establishment favourite but now at 3%, so he may decide to up the ante with more attacks on Trump, whom he called “unhinged” after the Muslim ban proposal.
He was also quick to speak out after the California killings in similarly apocalyptic tones to Cruz. “They have declared war on us. And we need to declare war on them,” said Bush. And while he doesn’t propose a ban on Muslims entering the country, he does suggest a religious test for Syrian refugees which would favour Christians over Muslims—a position also pushed by Cruz.
New Jersey governor Chris Christie adopted a similarly tough tone, saying at a campaign stop in Iowa: “Our nation is under siege... What I believe we’re facing is the next world war. This is what we’re in right now, already.”
Donald Trump just thanked Katie Hopkins for her 'powerful writing' on Muslims in the UK https://t.co/Dnhr9zLc4x pic.twitter.com/pAXsO0PFbI
— Irish Examiner (@irishexaminer) December 10, 2015
But it’s not just the polls and security issues that will matter in this debate. Strong performances by candidates may also trigger a boost to their coffers.
Rubio and Cruz are winning over some of Bush’s natural financial backers. Rubio recently won the support of three major party donors, Frank VanderSloot, Paul Singer and Cliff Asness.
While the Republicans can be expected to cast the Democrats as timid on terrorism, when the Democrats’ own turn comes on Saturday they will be ready to fire back on all fronts.
Frontrunner Hillary Clinton will probably use language similar to that employed by President Obama recently and emphasise that America’s security “does not depend on tough talk” but on being “strong and smart.”
But she can also be expected to put some space between herself and Obama and repeat that no-fly zones should be imposed over some parts of Syria, a step that Obama has declined to propose.
There's a new Chrome extension that replaces mentions of Donald Trump with Voldemort https://t.co/NmGwGAY08l pic.twitter.com/LFIf6y56rs
— Irish Examiner (@irishexaminer) December 11, 2015
She will also contrast herself with rivals Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley by emphasising her hawkishness and her experience in dealing with world leaders when she was secretary of state.
Gun control will also be a major issue for all three candidates. They are likely to emphasise that the assault weapons used in the California massacre were legally purchased in the state and that more than 2,000 people on the FBI’s terrorist watch list have legally purchased firearms over the last decade..
Above all, in these debates, both parties’ candidates will be anxious to show they are not prepared to cede any aspect of the national security issue to their rivals as they head with breakneck speed into next year’s election.
