Donald Trump may tone down demagoguery as race develops

Bette Browne looks at the notorious campaign run so far by the the Republican candidate for the US presidency, Donald Trump

Taoiseach Enda Kenny may be right to brand comments by US presidential contender Donald Trump “racist and dangerous”, but, as the tycoon changes his stance with dizzying speed, it’s worth recalling some of his comments and whether they will help or hinder him as his battles to woo voters and move from the Republican base to the national stage.

His incendiary comments have become so frequent that we tend to forget some others that have also become part and parcel of the candidate’s image.

On June 16, 2015, I was in New York to hear Trump launch his presidential campaign with this infamous remark about Mexican immigrants: “They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists.”

It set the stage for what was to come.

[media=youtube]https://youtu.be/Jqn3V8EJVPg/media]

On November 24, 2015, he mocked New York Times investigative reporter Serge Kovaleski by mimicking his disability on stage at a South Carolina rally.

On December 7, 2015, he called for “a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States.”

On February 6, 2016, on fighting terrorism, he said: “I would bring back waterboarding and I’d bring back a hell of a lot worse than waterboarding.”

On August, 6, 2015, at the first Republican debate, he lashed out at reporter Megyn Kelly but didn’t contradict her when she reminded him he’d called women “fat pigs,” “dogs,” “slobs”, and “disgusting animals”.

On March 30, 2016, he said women who have an abortion should face “some form of punishment”.

Also on March 30, 2016, he refused to rule out using nuclear weapons against Europe, telling MSNBC: “I’m not taking cards off the table.”

The full exchange about nuclear weapons went like this with reporter Chris Matthews:

CM: “How about Europe? We won’t use in Europe?”

DT: “I’m not going to take it off the table for anybody.”

CM: “You’re going to use it in Europe?”

DT: “No! I don’t think so. But…”

CM: “Just say it, say ‘I’m not going to use a nuclear weapon in Europe’.”

DT: “I am not taking cards off the table.”

Some politicians in the US and around the world have reacted with a degree of apprehension, even fear, to such comments, especially coming from a candidate for the most powerful office in the world who has neither political experience nor diplomatic skills.

British prime minister David Cameron, for example, has called Trump’s comments “divisive, stupid. and wrong.”

US president Barack Obama said in recent days that leaders are right to be “rattled” by Trump because of his “ignorance of world affairs”.

But others, such as Russian leader Vladimir Putin and some close to the North Korean regime haven’t been that upset by Trump.

And, in a way, they may be right because, as the Taoiseach also pointed out, Americans have another choice in their November election.

The question is which candidate are they likely to opt to send to the White House.

If one follows the sums in the key battleground states, it’s unlikely to be Trump, because the political mathematics favour presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

Hillary Clinton

It goes like this. The popular vote in the US translates into a certain number of electoral college votes from each state in the November election.

There are 540 such electoral votes. If Clinton were to take all of the states that Obama won in 2012, as well as North Carolina, which he also won in 2008, it would put her over the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

She’d net 285 to Trump’s 253, according to a New York Times tally.

It also shows, however, that if Trump were to improve his margin by 10 percentage points he could win. But he faces a big challenge to achieve this.

While he has won a huge following in the nominating race among voters in the Republican base, winning the general elation will be an altogether different story.

Unless he can somehow broaden his appeal among independent voters and among those whom he’s alienated, such as Hispanics and women, he’ll have the fight of his life on his hands to win.

It would also be a grave mistake, however, to underestimate Trump’s desire to close this deal.

He’s already trying to soften his tone to attract the Republican establishment and now says many of his earlier positions and comments were merely “suggestions”.

And, of course, he’s busy doing this while Clinton is still fighting off a major challenge for the Democratic nomination from Bernie Sanders, though that should end in Clinton’s favour in next Tuesday’s last major primaries.

Bernie Sanders

In the meantime, if Trump continues to moderate his image and his policies he could have a real chance of boosting his base support and coming with reach of the White House.

And Kenny might yet have to get used to the notion of President Trump — warts and all!