From justice to jobs, here's a run down of the big challenges facing the Dáil in 2017
From a housing crisis, continuing turmoil in our health sector to Trump’s presidency in the US and, of course, Brexit, the potential pitfalls are considerable.
Added to that is the considerable instability which exists not just within Leinster House, but within the ranks of Government.
Fine Gael and the Independent Alliance have been embroiled in several high-profile rows and personal relationships between Enda Kenny and Shane Ross are tetchy at best.
So what are the big challenges facing all members of the Cabinet during 2017 and what are their chances of succeeding?
TAOISEACH/DEFENCE
For Enda Kenny, survival is the overriding priority for 2017. Increasing numbers of his own troops are becoming increasingly itchy about him remaining on in his post, given he has stated his intention not to lead Fine Gael into the next election.
The current minority Government is precariously poised to collapse at any time, so Mr Kenny’s top priority is to keep the show on the road.
He believes he has a right to stay on and has made it clear he wants to stay around as long as he can.
But before he goes, he has a lot to do, he assures us. Refusing to consider appointing a designated Brexit minister, Kenny has assumed that mantle for himself, God help us.
Famed for his energy and his anti-intellectual approach to leadership, Kenny has decided to sit on his hands until the British Government decides what form of Brexit it wants to pursue.
Kenny and Fine Gael have also insisted that our “friends” in Europe will ensure our interests are taken care of, but just how friendly they are remains to be seen.
That approach has been widely criticised and with every passing week, the threat to Ireland from Brexit appears to escalate.
Elsewhere, Martin McGuinness’s resignation last week and the subsequent fall-out from the collapse of the Stormont Assembly is an additional crisis to be managed by Merrion Street.
In the field of defence, the continuing missions to the Mediterranean in the rescuing of migrants will be a top priority for Kenny and his junior minister Paul Kehoe.
FINANCE
Already pressure is building for more tax cuts or funds for services in the next budget in October. This will be a key focus, for the minister of the day. Another factor will obviously be Brexit and what impact its triggering will have on Ireland’s finances, the euro, as well as any future tariffs that may apply on the island.
The department also faces questions as part of a potential inquiry into Project Eagle, Nama’s northern loan book sale.
The Public Accounts Committee will finish its work on the controversial sale, which a previous C&AG report concluded was undersold to a vulture fund. Minister Michael Noonan may have to answer more questions, if PAC’s scoping exercise and, ultimately, the government, concedes a full blown inquiry is warranted.
The ongoing shadow of the European Commission’s conclusion that Ireland gave Apple some €13bn in illegal state aid continues to hang over this administration. An appeal against the Brussels decision will take years, but the controversy will not go away and questions still hang in the air over Ireland’s tax policies.
The last two budgets have also heard discussion around what Ireland can and can’t spend under EU budget rules following our financial bailout. This will change next year. Under the ‘medium term budgetary objective’, Ireland, if it reaches certain debt level targets, will be allowed spend more under EU rules.
PUBLIC EXPENDITURE AND REFORM
With teachers, gardaí, junior doctors and nurses all threatening strike action, Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Pascal Donohue had a challenging few months as 2016 came to a close.
Mr Donohoe began discussions with the public sector arm of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions (ICTU) to iron out some of the anomalies in the Lansdowne Road Agreement before Christmas. These anomalies were created as a result of the €50 million deal struck with gardaí in the Labour Court. The recommendation which sees members of the force receive around €3,000 extra from this month further infuriated people elsewhere in th public sector.
There has been growing frustration among public sector workers that pay restoration is not happening quickly enough, given the improvement in our economy.
Mr Donohoe has remained resolute that renegotiation of the Lansdowne Road agreement will not begin until the third quarter of this year. However, he is likely to come under increasing pressure to bring forward these talks or face strike action.
Mr Donohoe will have to thread a fine line between satisfying workers and ensuring any deal on public sector pay is affordable, sustainable and fair.
Budget negotiations went down to the wire before last October’s budget and this year is expected to be no different. Mr Donohoe will be inundated by requests for additional funding from every department and doling out the right amount — or what is perceived to be the right amount — is never an easy task.
Lastly, the minister will have to continue the process of reform that ensures we have a responsive, accountable and efficient public service.
JUSTICE
Historic garda strike action was averted at the last minute in 2016, but that doesn’t mean 2017 will be a bed of roses for Justice Minister Frances Fitzgerald.
A €50m gap in funding for the new union deal, high-profile whistleblowers and phone-tapping investigations, the Hutch-Kinahan gangland feud, claims of limited garda numbers in rural areas and growing questions over Garda Commissioner Nóirín Ó Sullivan mean the next year will be more than eventful for the Tánaiste.
The most pressing public priority over the coming weeks will be the impact of the pay deal struck with the Garda Representative Association and Association of Garda Sergeants and Inspectors last autumn.
While averting an unprecedented strike, the agreement means the Department of Justice now has a €50m additional bill that must be met this year, with planned new vehicles, overtime and IT system improvements likely to be limited or sacrificed to meet the extra cost — further stretching existing services.
However, this issue will pale into insignificance when it comes to the potential fallout of three imminent reports into previously hidden scandals due in the coming months.
As previously reported, the long-awaited Government-commissioned independent inquiry into claims gardaí illegally taped phone-calls between suspects and their legal teams for 30 years is expected to be published by the end of March, posing potentially serious consequences for hundreds of court rulings between 1980 and 2013.
The coming months will also see the continued fallout from Garda controversies, with the O’ Higgins and O’Neill reports raising further awkward questions for Ms Fitzgerald and Garda Commissioner Nóirín O’ Sullivan.
Coupled with the escalating Hutch-Kinahan gang feud in Dublin, which saw parts of the capital suffocated by fear of reprisal shootings in broad daylight in 2016, and ongoing concerns over a lack of gardaí in rural Ireland, 2017 appears more bed of thorns than bed of roses for the Department of Justice.
HEALTH
When it comes to the health service, one could be forgiven for suggesting a look back at any year over the past decade would give as much of an insight into the coming 12 months as any crystal ball.
Like his predecessors Varadkar, Reilly, Harney and Martin, Health Minister Simon Harris has spent recent months emphasising the positives of reduced waiting lists, nurse recruitment drives and a bigger budget.
However, despite a different bedside manner, with hundreds still languishing on hospital trolleys every day, up to 40,000 nurses and support workers due to strike within weeks, demanding GP contract negotiations, and questions over whether the HSE budget will stretch to meet needs once more, it all seems just a little too familiar.
The biggest hurdle Mr Harris will have to overcome has already appeared, with the trolley count crisis — considered a microcosm of wider problems by medics for decades — returning with fresh force this January.
While the Health Minister has variously blamed an “unexpected” flu outbreak — at winter, no less — and underperforming hospital managers who he has suggested may be replaced, the reality is people get sick and managers have contracts which cannot be cancelled, so another answer is needed.
Imminent strike action by a combined 40,000 nurses and Siptu hospital support workers will also wreak havoc with the minister’s well-laid plans in the coming weeks, and although Mr Harris has suggested a new GP contract could be the answer to everyone’s prayers, it remains unclear if a deal will be struck.
It would be unfair to suggest the coming year is all bad news for health, with longer-term waiting lists reducing slowly, a hoped-for 1,000 new nursing positions to be created by a new recruitment drive, the cross-party health committee progressing its work and a potential move to reduce vital pharmaceutical drug costs all on the agenda.
But even if the targets are met, Mr Harris will be under pressure to avoid repeating the same mistakes as his predecessors.
And that’s before even mentioning the now year-long delay into a State inquiry into the Grace foster abuse scandal — an issue that has wider, damaging consequences for the health system.
SOCIAL PROTECTION
With €300 million extra in his budget for 2017, Social Protection Minister Leo Varadkar has €19.85bn to fund his department.
However, the minister has made a number of significant commitments, especially around pensions, reducing unemployment levels and assisting the self-employed.
The invalidity pension and the treatment benefit scheme will be extended to self-employed people this year and Mr Varadkar has said he wants to roll out a number of other benefits to farmers, traders and those who run their own businesses.
Mr Varadkar has also been pushing for a European model of PRSI which would create a clearer link between PRSI contributions and the benefits received.
Mr Varadkar has suggested moving to a more European system of social welfare. He has raised the possibility of introducing a system whereby those who have been paying PRSI and lose their job, should receive greater social welfare payments.
All of these ideas would require time and funding. Whether he can deliver on these promises while in his current brief remains to be seen.
Mr Varadkar is committed to reducing unemployment levels by 5% this year. Given the uncertainty Brexit now poses, this will be a challenge.
The department is to publish an action plan focused on helping families get jobs and he has promised to take another 20,000 people from welfare to work.
The State pension is always a contentious issue and Fianna Fáil fought hard to bring about a €5 increase in Budget 2017.
In the end the Government announced the increase would come into force in March, but the grey vote always must be looked after and Mr Varadkar will come under pressure to introduce further increases as part of Budget 2018.
COMMUNICATIONS
Fresh from being knocked off his bicycle over Christmas, for a minister with a portfolio ranging from RTÉ to bin collection services, it should be no surprise Independent TD Denis Naughten has a variety of headaches on the horizon for this year.
Among the most pressing issues on the agenda for the former Fine Gael TD — who is minister for communications, climate action and the environment — will be the high-profile reform of Ireland’s private bin collection service amid fears costs are rising too far.
After a short-lived controversy last summer, Mr Naughten confirmed he is to introduce a new pay-by- weight system this year in a bid to halt surging bills for households across the country.
As part of the move — whose logic bears an uncanny resemblance to that of water charges — Mr Naughten was to introduce the new system alongside the existing pay-by-use service at the start of this month.
However, just before Christmas he confirmed this dual approach — which will see some families pay more for their existing services — has now been delayed, a situation he stressed is not due to how it will be viewed publicly.
Climate change is also likely to demand much of Mr Naughten’s time this year, with ongoing local controversies over the building of wind farms and north-south inter-connectors in a bid to reduce Ireland’s energy costs.
While the reasoning itself is sound, the impact of the developments on towns and villages means it is a major political headache, an issue underlined in December after Fine Gael TD and Government chief whip said she would support protests against the inter-connector in her area.
Given the politically sensitive nature of environment and climate change, Mr Naughten may feel the need to seek sanctuary in his communications work. But even here, problems persist.
The need to slice large amounts of money off the RTÉ bill, while the recently announced plan to use a “commercial stimulus model” to help bring broadband to 1.8m people living in rural Ireland between this June and 2042 has already provoked opposition anger.
ARTS
Heather Humphreys might have got off to a bad start as a minister, but she has a lot potentially to deliver this year. Her rural Ireland action plan is set to be finished this month. The report, a successor to the previous Pat Spillane dossier on supporting rural Ireland, will coordinate each department’s actions and include a focus on housing, community and job creation support.
Ms Humphreys will also oversee the new Creative Ireland programme, a series of events, schemes and a five-year programme to promote and help the arts, including a new culture night at Easter.
But the minister faces the uncertain outcome over a court ruling which gave Moore Street a national monument status. The Government appealed the ruling but the result may not be decided this year.
Separately, the minister and the department are finalising the reopening of a wing of a national gallery after its €32m facelift. Other capital projects being completed include an €8m works on the national library and refurbishment of the national archives.
The department will also coordinate more low-key events for 1916 again this year as well as joint WWI commemorations as part of the decade of centenaries, such as the Battle of Messines, West Flanders.
HOUSING/ WATER CHARGES
Simon Coveney in the last month was engulfed in controversy regarding the ongoing homelessness crisis, which saw the occupation of Apollo House in Dublin.
An amicable agreement between activists and the minister collapsed and it remains unclear if the standoff can be resolved. But campaigners are keeping up the pressure to get people off the streets. The minister has also committed to bring an end to B&Bs and hotels being used for emergency accommodation by July 1.
Minister Coveney is also likely to decide on any further rent pressure zones late this month, after Fianna Fáil forced him to tweak his rental strategy and add in new areas sooner rather than later where a 4% cap will apply on rates for tenants. It remains to be seen how the rental controls work.
Separately, a decision on water charges must be made in just under 12 weeks, as agreed during the government formation talks. An Oireachtas Committee is debating the future of the charges, but bills have only been suspended until the end of March, by which time a Dáil vote will decide their future.
This outcome will very much shape the remaining period of this minority government. If it fails and there is widespread disagreement, it could be the unravelling of Enda Kenny’s administration.
Mr Coveney will also announce by then which local authorities will get monies under a local infrastructure fund to encourage house building. He is also likely to examine an election promise to establish a new planning regulator over the coming months, department sources say. A report on constituency boundary changes — due in June — could cause the Government another headache.
TRANSPORT
Shane Ross has come under fire for neglecting his portfolio. But a series of calamities and concerns are piling up. The rising number of road deaths are a concern, something the minister is now committed to reducing. He also has pledged to examine drink driving legislation and possibly reduce permitted alcohol levels further.
After a shock report on the real cost of subsidising Irish Rail, Mr Ross will likely have to decide on cutting its support, hiking up fares or simply axing routes in the months ahead. Expect lots of lobbying from politicians (some have begun already) about retaining certain loss-making rail routes.
Tough decisions are also needed at Bus Éireann, with mounting losses and serious question marks over the future of its Expressway service.
A central criticism of Mr Ross has been his failure to fill over 30 state board appointments. The sluggish decision-making has annoyed some cabinet colleagues. But the Independent Alliance member maintains he wants the appointments process changed.
One of the most controversial matters to come across Mr Ross’s desk this year, potentially by March, will be the Moran report into the Rio Olympics ticketing scandal. The non-statutory probe, which began in September, is looking at policies and procedures used by the Olympic Council of Ireland around ticketing for the games.
JOBS
It is all about Brexit, Brexit, Brexit, and job creation for this department. But all has not got off to a good start for Enterprise Minister Mary Mitchell O’Connor. She this week lost another special advisor, a second in just eight months. Her own party TDs have also not shied away from criticising her.
Nonetheless, the minister is ambitious to attract firms here on the back of Brexit and has the opportunity in the months ahead to use the IDA and Enterprise Ireland to achieve that goal.
She also faces pressure to increase the minimum wage this year after just a 10 cent rise from the last budget. This proposed increase split the minimum wage commission, who advise her.
In rural Ireland, there is still frustration that the recovery has not taken hold and that new jobs are not coming while some companies are in fact folding up their tents. This has been made known to the minister from her own Fine Gael colleagues.
The major focus of the department though will be Brexit, especially how Britain’s planned exit from the EU may affect trade and if tariffs are applied by Brussels.
Expect much debate leading up to October’s budget about whether fresh tax incentives should be offered to firms willing to move here rather than Paris or Frankfurt if and when those companies leave London because of Brexit.
EDUCATION
Education Minister Richard Bruton has entered 2017 already facing industrial strife.
The country’s largest secondary teachers union, the ASTI, has recommended that members reject proposals aimed at solving their disputes over Junior Cert reform and pay.
If teachers do reject the offer later this month, schools and the Minister will be faced with more industrial action.
New legislation around schools admissions, which was put on the agenda by former Education Minister Ruairi Quinn is likely to come into force this year.
The legislation would end waiting lists and would also limit the number of places set aside for children of former students to 25%.
The minister is likely to face strong opposition to both measures from private schools and even the possibility of challenges to the legislation.
Mr Bruton, along with many of his predecessors, have faced strong lobbying for the divestment of schools, which so far has seen only a handful of schools taken out of the control of the Catholic church.
With increasing demand for a wider range of educational options, especially at primary level, the pressure to establish more Educate Together, Gaelscoileanna and other alternatives will continue.
The Cassells report published last year after much delay, highlighted the massive funding deficit in the third level sector.
At the same time, Irish universities have been dropping down the world rankings as reduced funding, especially in the area of research, has squeezed budgets.
Three funding options were put forward in the Cassells report, which the Department of Education is still mulling over.
However, it is likely that a student loan scheme will have to be implemented as part of measures to fund third level education into the future. This would inevitably spark fury and possible protests by students and parents alike.
Before the Budget, Fianna Fáil had called for an additional €100m in funding this year in light of the stark findings of the Cassells report, a call which was not heeded.
Mr Bruton will come under the same pressure to fund third level education both in the immediate and longer term.
With a growing young population, Mr Bruton will have to fight for more money to employ additional teachers and SNAs, while capital funding will be required to build new schools.
AGRICULTURE
One word is set to dominate all areas of agriculture in the coming year — Brexit.
The UK vote to leave the EU and the resulting fall in the value of sterling cost Irish food and drink exporters €570m last year alone.
In its Export Review and Prospects Report, Bord Bia found that food and drink exports to the Britain fell by 8% last year.
Bord Bia warned agri-sector’s reliance on exports and in particular exports to Britain means the industry will face further challenges this year.
Fluctuations in currency may be outside of the control of the Department of Agriculture, but Minister Michael Creed will be under pressure to protect these valuable trade links with the UK.
The beef sector is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in sterling due to its reliance on the UK market.
Teagasc found that the fall in sterling contributed to a 5% drop in Irish finished cattle prices last year and this trend could continue into 2017.
Mr Creed will also have to fight hard to ensure that the fishing industry is not hit by Brexit, maintaining Irish quotas and keeping the same areas of sea Irish trawlers can enter must be a priority.
A hard Brexit could signal the end of fishing in UK territorial waters, which would be a massive blow to the industry here.
After a number of tumultuous years, milk prices stabilised somewhat in the last quarter of 2016 and it is expected to remain stable in the coming year giving some relief for dairy farmer.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
It goes without saying that Brexit is by far the most critical issue which will impact on every aspect of Irish life.
While Taoiseach Enda Kenny will sit at the EU Council table when Article 50 is invoked and negotiations between Britain and Europe begin, Foreign Affairs Minister Charlie Flanagan will have a central role in ensuring ties remain intact and the transition, whatever that may bring, is as smooth as possible.
A number of all-island Brexit civic dialogues are to take place in the coming months, the first of which took place in Dublin in November.
However, the resignation of Sinn Féins’s Martin McGuinness in the North has added an extra dimension to the debate.
The first number of months of Donald Trump’s presidency will no doubt signal the relationship Ireland will have with the US for at least the next four years. Mr Flanagan and his consular officials in the States will play an important part in shaping this relationship.
The minister will be travelling to Washington in the coming weeks to establish links with the new administration. With 33million Americans claiming Irish heritage, have a strong relationship with the US is extremely important.
Building trade links in Asia and South America will be a key priority this year.
Japan and China will also be a key focus and it is expected Mr Flanagan will lead a number of trade visits to South-East Asia and South America.
The detention of Ibrahim Halawa in Egypt has been perhaps the highest profile Irish consular case ever with unprecedented time and resources to it.
Indeed just last week a group of TDs travelled to visit the Dubliner in prison to seek clarity around the case from officials.
The Egyptian authorities have signalled that they will release Mr Halawa to Ireland after his trial, but continued lobbying from Government will be required no doubt.
CHILDREN
Children’s Minister Katherine Zappone was seen to be one of the big winners out of last October’s budget and delivering on her childcare promises will dominate her agenda throughout 2017.
She announced a 15% increase in funding for services to support children, young people and families in Budget 2017, bringing the total funding of her department to over €1.3 billion.
One of the other major issues is the development of the embattled child protection agency, Tusla, which will receive €713m.
Another major issue that Zappone and junior minister Finian McGrath have to deal with is the continuing fall-out from the ‘Grace’ Waterford foster home sex abuse scandal.
An inquiry is pending, and pressure is mounting on McGrath to deliver on the commitment made a year ago.
For Zappone herself, her long standing wish to see the repeal of the controversial 8th amendment on abortion will require attention this year, as Enda Kenny has already said there will be no referendum this year, amid talk the issue has been long fingered.
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