Biden his time or too late for a run for the White House?
It would certainly shake up the race for the White House if US vice-president Joe Biden entered the fray. While his supporters believe he could win the Democratic nomination, the record suggests the likelihood of a Biden presidency is remote.
Biden twice sought the presidency and twice failed — once in 1988 and the second time in 2008. Now he is 72 and has little in the way of an ongoing fundraising machine to compete with rivals like Hillary Clinton, never mind Republicans.
But supporters such as Dick Harpootlian, the former chairman of the South Carolina Democratic party, told me that if Biden does decide to enter the race he could win the nomination.
“His son Beau died less than 90 days ago,” says Harpootlian. “He is still grieving and he’s got to get his head around whether to do this or not but if he decides to do that I think he would be an immediate credible contender, he’d be competitive with Hillary Clinton.
"He’s well known and liked in all the primary states and he’s been the vice president for six years so he’s immediately a very credible contender.”
Harpootlian also believes that, as a sitting vice president, Biden could raise enough money to fight a campaign and could defeat any Republican nominee.
“Absolutely. No one knows more about foreign policy than he does,” says Harpootlian. “He sat in the situation room with the president for every major decision of the last six years.
“This is a guy who was proposing breaking Iraq up into autonomous regions with Kurd, Shia, and Sunni provinces; if his advice was followed there would be no Isis today. He is a guy with a serious record and Republicans will look like amateurs compared to him.”
But others are not so sure. Irish American Democrats president Stella O’Leary is a firm supporter of Clinton but is also a keen admirer of Biden and she believes it’s unlikely the vice president will enter the race.
“My guessing is that he will not get in,” O’Leary tells me. “Obviously, as of now, Hillary is in a better position to beat any of the Republicans and I don’t see any groundswell for Biden that would bring him close to her numbers.”
Yet there is some concern among Democrats at the weakening of Clinton’s numbers.
“Democratic insiders appear to be getting very worried about Hillary and her sinking numbers and lackluster campaign,” says a Boston-based political analyst.
"“I think Biden may actually go for it. If he does, I think Hillary will be in trouble. It’s nearly impossible for a Republican to win in November, but Hillary’s numbers are so bad, they could win by default.”
But while Clinton’s ratings have taken a hit in some swing states, Biden also polls behind most Republicans in places Democrats need to capture the White House.
The record also shows that few politicians in America have the personal and political courage that Biden has demonstrated throughout his career, the most recent tragedy being the death of his 46-year-old son, Beau, from brain cancer.
When New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd recently started renewed speculation about a Biden presidential run, she cited Beau as having had a conversation with his father before he died in which he urged him to run.
A Washington friend who knows Biden has told me that he is “overcome with grief and torn apart emotionally” after the loss of his son.
Yet after his wife and daughter were killed in a car accident 43 years ago, Biden fought back and went on to become one of the country’s most powerful senators before being tapped as Barack Obama’s vice-president in 2008.
So maybe he has another fight in him. But perhaps Clinton does too — and she’s hardly going to easily bow out of the race in favour of another male rival.
