Why I fear for this Irish team
Deeply pessimistic about our chances of beating Poland tomorrow and going on to qualify for the Euro 2016 finals, our football analyst believes the quality of player available to Martin O’Neill is at an all-time low.
What I have to say today is written with a heavy heart but the truth is that I’m decidedly pessimistic about the prospect of us securing the victory against Poland tomorrow which would be so vital to guaranteeing Ireland an automatic place for Euro 2016.
Even with the qualifying route to the finals made easier by the expansion of the tournament to 24 teams, I think there are grounds for real concern that we may not get one of the two automatic qualifying berths and, indeed, if results don’t improve or go our way, I fear we might even struggle to make the play-offs.
I was part of an Irish team which qualified for Euro ’88 when there were only eight finalists. We did so having managed to top a group containing Bulgaria, Belgium and Scotland, with all of us competing for the one and only qualifying spot, and it meant we really had broken through into the upper echelons of the international game.
When I consider that, for his centre-backs alone, Jack Charlton could choose from the likes of Kevin Moran, Paul McGrath, Mick McCarthy, Mark Lawrenson and David O’ Leary – all of whom were established players at top clubs – it makes me sad to see where we are now in terms of the quality at Martin O’Neill’s disposal.
I have been worried for quite some time that the talent available to us has actually arrived at an all-time low. Giovanni Trapattoni drew a final tune out of Damien Duff, Richard Dunne, Kevin Kilbane and Robbie Keane, but I knew that when their legs went, we would struggle to find players to fill their boots. That was always my defence of Trapattoni and, since his departure almost a year and a half ago now, I’ve seen no evidence of those replacements coming from anywhere.
Once we ascertained he was available, the appointment of Martin O’Neill was almost a no-brainer in light of his track record of achieving excellent results at Leicester, Villa and especially Celtic. He had the reputation of working with players to create a strong team spirit and giving them the confidence to get surprising results.
However, up to now, I haven’t seen any evidence that he is working the same trick with this Irish squad. He no longer, of course, has the transfer market to allow him to buy a player who would fit into his blueprint for success.
And he’s clearly struggling to come up with a strategy and style which would get this Irish squad to play with the confidence necessary to achieve the results we need.
Ireland have played four games and gained seven points so far in this qualifying campaign but, leaving Gibraltar out of the equation – because, frankly, I can’t see them even scoring a goal in this group – I believe we have been fortunate to accumulate the other four points.
Yes, we showed great spirit and resolve away to Germany but, for eighty minutes, we didn’t threaten their goal. In Georgia, we were fortunate that Aiden McGeady came up with his last-minute winner as we’d looked decidedly nervous and unsure in the second half of that game. In Scotland, we were simply poor.
The team Martin selected differed considerably from what he had gone with before, Shane Long replacing Robbie Keane being the biggest call. But it didn’t work, which leaves the manager with the same big selection decision to make for tomorrow.
But simply because Plan B didn’t pan out in Glasgow, I don’t think it follows that Robbie should go straight back into the starting 11. Martin’s dilemma is the fact that Robbie is such a proven goal-scorer and Shane isn’t, but it’s also the case that Shane is playing in the Premier League and has returned to some level of form for Southampton. So he would be the future. I understand that it’s a huge call for Martin but I would say that he should stick with Long.
Another big call concerns Wes Hoolahan. I would like to see him given a chance against Poland, either as a number 10 behind the striker or as a wide player who can come inside and take up positions where he can get on the ball.
But while he shows tremendous flair at times, there is obviously a big doubt as to whether he can do it against the stronger, quicker, more physical teams. Better managers than me have shied away from playing him in those games, for both club and country, but I would still like him to be given a go tomorrow and see if he can answer the question we all have: can he really deliver in the crunch games? Hand on heart, though, I don’t think Martin is going to play him.
With Darron Gibson now unavailable, the expectation is that Martin will go with Glenn Whelan and James McCarthy in central midfield. In this campaign, McCarthy has only played one game of the four, against Georgia, and although he supplied an important assist for McGeady’s goal, I think the jury is still out about his importance to the Irish team.
Without doubt, McCarthy and his clubmate, Seamus Coleman, are the best players we have operating in the Premier League but it is a worry to see McCarthy miss games for Ireland and then, the following week, play for Everton.
I don’t know whether he’s just shy or really has a passion to play for Ireland.
I see there has been speculation in the media over the last few days that Shay Given could be in line to replace David Forde in goal. A lot has been made of Shay’s vast experience, especially of big games, but Forde is hardly a rookie. In this campaign, he has the four qualifiers under his belt already and he hasn’t done anything wrong. In fact, he made some decent saves against Georgia while, against Germany, he probably saved us from defeat. He’s also 35, so it’s not like you’re putting in a kid and wondering if he can handle the situation. On the other hand, the simple fact of the matter is that David Forde is the goalkeeper at Millwall who are struggling in the Championship, while Shay Given was a much better ‘keeper in his time. But if I was having a bet, I’d say Martin will stick with Forde.
With Stephen Ward possibly missing out, Robbie Brady has emerged in some people’s eyes as a candidate to fill in at left-back on the basis of his performance in the friendly against the USA. But I seriously doubt if that game would have any bearing on Martin’s decision – the Poles, in a competitive match, will be a far stronger proposition than the Americans were in a friendly. And it would be a huge risk to put a player who hasn’t got a lot of mileage at left-back in that position against the good forward players Poland will have tomorrow.
So if I had to guess Martin O’Neill’s team, I would imagine he will go with David Forde in goal, Marc Wilson at left-back, John O’Shea and Richard Keogh as centre-halves and Seamus Coleman at right-back. In midfield, I think it will be James McClean and Aiden McGeady wide with James McCarthy and Glenn Whelan in the middle. And upfront, he’ll opt for Jon Walters and Shane Long.
I do worry about the Polish threat, even if they are missing a few of their first-choice players tomorrow. They beat Germany, had a little blip against a good Scottish team in Warsaw and went away to Georgia – where we just got out of jail — and won 4-0 with a really good second half performance.
In particular, they have really potent attacking players, not only Robert Lewandowski who is obviously one of the best strikers around, but also the young Ajax lad, Arkadius Milik, who is a really effective partner for the Bayern Munich star. And they have good players in most other positions too.
Bearing all that in mind, I think a draw would be a useful result for us in terms of getting third place and into a play-off. It certainly wouldn’t be a disaster if we picked up a point.
Of course, it would be a marvellous result if Ireland won. And I really hope they do because I’d like nothing more than to park my pessimism and have this Irish side make me eat my words.
