The week in Fantasy Premier League: Trying to pick a captain after the match that changed everything
It was the classic gamblerās fallacy - just because something has happened nine times in a row, doesnāt mean it will happen again.
West Hamās defeat of a seemingly imperious side turned the FPL landscape on its head like no result before it this season, instantly devaluing those very Spurs and Chelsea assets that had seemed so unquestionably essential a mere two hours earlier.
Now, a win against West Brom tonight will see secure the title, almost certainly provoking wholesale rotation from Antonio Conte as he prepares for his assault on a league and cup double.
It would also have us dreading a repeat of last yearās late-season collapse from a despondent Spurs side.
will have something to say about that of course, but just as was the case last week, most of us will plough on and plan for what we believe must be the most likely scenario.
That means casting a more critical eye over our FPL squads as we search for some late-season glory - beginning with that all-important pick.
So letās take a look at the candidates most FPL bosses will putting the armband on, before inevitably realising they would have been better off going with a goalkeeper.
Eden Hazard
An obvious choice for armband until that fateful Friday night, predicting the Belgianās minutes is now riddled with uncertainty.
What we do know is that Chelsea have an around the corner, six days after their final league match. We also know that whether they secure enough points for the title tonight or not, Sky Sports say the trophy will be presented on the final day of the season (and they should know).
Some rotation is a given, but when it will happen and to whom is really anyoneās guess.
If the title is secured, Conte could rest players against Watford and allow something resembling the first team enjoy a victory lap against Sunderland. Conversely, he could opt to rest key players in with the cup final in mind.
Chelsea have 4 games in 15 days.
— FPLHINTS īØ (@FPLHints) May 11, 2017
Are you telling me that Hazard will play 360 minutes? Bound to be rested/rotated in DGW37-B/GW38.#FPL
Given their form and what should be some real cannon-fodder fixtures, itās certainly not the time to be selling any Chelsea players, but the threat of substitution and rotation means that captainās armband wonāt look quite as good on as we thought it once would.
The fact Hazard will probably only play 1 game is where is stems from
— FPL Judas (@FPLJudas) May 11, 2017
Alexis Sanchez
The Arsenal midfielder has provided yet another example of how fickle our outlook on players can be.
Before his expertly-taken goal against , many were contemplating sacrificing the Chilean to fund moves for other premium-priced midfielders. Now, with Arsenalās campaign for a top-four finish seemingly back on track, we can look upon their kind fixture list with renewed optimism.
The main upside Ā offers over rival captaincy candidates is security of starts.
If heās fit, he plays - even if itās not where weād like him to.
Sanchez is guaranteed 90 mins for both games as they go for Top 4.. all other options for this upcoming gw are roation risks
— - (@LukakuFPL) May 10, 2017
His stats remained frustratingly decent throughout his barren spell, but far as the āeye testā goes, he certainly looked more interested than in proceedings than he has done for quite some time this week. Whether thatās enough to trust him to make or break your season remains to be seen.
Kevin De Bruyne / Gabriel Jesus
Unlike Arsenal, Man City are a team with form, as well as fixtures and motivation, on their side. They really turned on the style against Palace, and have the firepower to do the same if West Brom and an injury-hit Leicester arenāt at their best.
A 17-point haul from has seen him top of the Transfers In column this week.
Heās disappointed since his explosive start to the season, but the baby-faced Belgian has been unlucky not to score more, hitting the woodwork nine times in all.
As nailed-on they come under Guardiola, heās created 20 chances in the last four Gameweeks, well ahead of second-placed ās 15. Heās not known for taking many shots, but offers a constant threat from free kicks.
Whatās more, heās owned by less than 4% of live teams, so a successful captaincy could help his owners rocket up the rankings.
Since his return from injury, teammate has yet to produce double-figure returns, which could make him a slightly under-the-radar captaincy pick.
Gabriel Jesus In The PL
— EPL Statman (@EPLStatman) May 11, 2017
ā±381 Minutes Played
ā½ļø 4 Goals
š °ļø 2 Assists
Mins Per Goal: 95
Mins Per Goal or Assist: 64 #MCFC pic.twitter.com/t1fHzUMKzC
It hasnāt been from want of trying - his eight shots in the box in the last two Gameweeks has him joint-top with Jermaine Defoe.
Heās facing two games in four days however, so Pep may choose to manage his minutes - especially given Agueroās likely availability from the bench.
Harry Kane
Remember him?
Another player who seemed an obvious captaincy pick for the last few weeks has lost his sheen after that blank against West Ham.
Itās difficult to gauge what kind of challenge their opponents - at home and away - will offer. Despite their Europa League focus, we can expect United to keep things tight. Leicester have also their defensive injuries to contend with, but stand-in centre back has still kept four clean sheets in his seven games.
Nevertheless, overtaking a disinterested in the race for the Golden Boot could provide the motivation he needs, and reward those brave enough not to allow one bad game sway their opinion of a top-drawer striker.
So, once your captaincy pickĀ is out of the way, itās time to look at another method of climbing the league - that late-season differential.
Low-owned players with big points potential
Man City again lead the way again here, with and convincing armies of eager FPL managers to invest.
Anyone watching their game against Palace would have seen just how thrillingly greedy Sane was when given a sight at goal. Heās hardly been a prolific shooter before then, but if Pep has given him greater licence, the goals will surely come.
He has had more touches (27) in the penalty box in his last four matches than any midfielder in the league, with Sterling just behind him on 25.
āļø @LeroySane19 has taken the #PL by storm since his move to @ManCity!#MCFC #inSanĆ© pic.twitter.com/2tjVdZxflZ
— OneFootball HQ (@OneFootballHQ) May 10, 2017
Despite scoring in all but two of his last nine games, is owned by just 9.1% of active teams. That pricetag remains difficult to stomach, but will we all be scolding ourselves for not taking what could seem like an obvious option when the dust settles on GW37?
Elsewhere, managers will be looking to capitalise on Chelsea rotation to spring a surprise on their mini-league rivals.
is just 2.4% owned despite registering four assists in his last 175 minutes in a Chelsea shirt, while performances have started returning points at last.
Incidentally, anyone looking to generate funds for big hitters could do worse than picking up .
Leicester remains one of the form teams in the league and if free-scoring doesnāt appeal, has impressed of late as he looks to put himself in the shop window.
Don't dump your single Gameweek stars
Donāt let the clamour to have 11 Double Gameweek players convince you to sell players that you shouldnāt.
has been rewarding his owners with consistent returns since his move to the Bournemouthās forward line visiting Burnley are unlikely to buck that trend on Saturday.
Although heās about as likely to be seen playing for Swansea as you or me next season, will not want a relegation on his CV. He has recaptured some form of late, and could reward loyal owners as he prepares to face relegated Sunderland and West Brom.
Never get rid of King.
— Opi (@Fpl_Opinion) May 11, 2017
Just donāt forget to hit that or button if you still have them, and beware of that !
Missed #fpl deadline on Friday because of an extended conference call in work! Now have the biggest crock of shi*te ever for a double GW!
— Matthew Bird (@MatthewBird71) May 7, 2017
QUICK TIP
Having a successful launch of its first issue (available free online), it looks like the new is here to stay - and in glossy print format too - thanks to a crowdfunding campaign that has really snowballed in recent weeks.
šļø Next season we hope to launch the first ever printed #FPL magazine. We can't do that without your support!
— FFMAG (@FantasyFootyMag) May 4, 2017
ā”ļø https://t.co/Gmh9v7Nsm3 pic.twitter.com/a6aP9apTWI
Thanks to widespread backing from the FPL community over the last few weeks, it looks like the four million players worldwide finally have dedicated, professional magazine to call our own.
BUY
There would be a certain symmetry to a big finish to the season for .
Kevin De Bruyne has now recorded 14 assists in the Premier League this season; more than any other player.
— Squawka (@Squawka) May 6, 2017
Chief playmaker. pic.twitter.com/NSFRqVZpqh
He certainly has the quality to produce the returns, and the prospect of clean sheet and more bonus points gives him the edge against forwards in the captaincy stakes.
TRY
Another player who really likes getting assistsā¦
Cesc Fabregas' hilarious reaction to being told he didn't get the assist for Costa's goal šš
— BeanymanSports (@BeanymanSports) May 8, 2017
https://t.co/5EpUtdudxV
Itās a risk to be sure, but has one of the best points-per-minute rates in the game this season. He has big scoring potential and could start getting the minutes he deserves in the weeks ahead.
GOODBYE
No goals in his five games since returning from injury has put right up there alongside the most disappointing FPL players in recent memory. The prospect of him playing a Double Gameweek is now the sole remaining reason to keep him, and even that is far from certain.
Puel: "We won't hesitate to start Austin"
— Premier League (@premierleague) May 10, 2017
The striker is nearing a return ahead of #SOUARS: https://t.co/9nDVea4XMT pic.twitter.com/zwxpPbAMbP
Sometimes, thereās a good reason something looks too good to be true...
Top of the League
The title of champion looks all but secured for latercomer Mervyn Glasgow and his GForce Allstars as the number 9 team world no doubt switch attention to the overall title.
Things are more exciting in the race for second, with Brian Haugh, Dan O'Brien, MicheĆ l Nevins and James Trayling separated by just 17 points.
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