Six Nations injury fear for clubs in captivating Champions Cup run-in
The Champions Cup may have its glitches but nobody will argue with the quality of the sides that have made it through to the knockout phase. Two of the four quarter-finalists evoke memories of mouthwatering finals in the past when Munster beat Toulouse at the Millennium Stadium in 2008 to win the Heineken Cup for the second time and that enthralling 2013 final in Dublin when Toulon won the first of their three in a row by a single point over Clermont Auvergne.
It is great for the tournament, and for Scottish rugby, that Glasgow Warriors have reached this stage for the first time, bringing the Guinness Pro 12 representation to three having had none last season.
It was vitally important the Anglo-French monopoly of Top 14 and Aviva Premiership clubs that filled all eight slots in 2016 was broken so spectacularly and that the three European domestic leagues are so well represented.
The tournament still has its flaws, most notably allowing only two weeks between the completion of the Six Nations and the staging of the quarter-finals. The other kink surrounds the methodology employed in deciding who hosts the semi-finals which was changed when the tournament was revamped in 2014.
Under the old system the semi-final pairings were drawn from a hat with first out hosting the decider which wasn’t ideal either. That changed with the restructure and the new system has its merits. The good thing from a Munster perspective is that if they beat Toulouse and Saracens beat Glasgow then that semi-final will be at the Aviva Stadium as Munster were ranked higher than Saracens after the pool stage.
The kink comes into play when the away team wins their respective quarter-final. They are automatically rewarded with a semi-final on home soil. Thus if Glasgow beat Saracens, Munster would have to travel to Scotland -I presume Murrayfield would host that - despite the fact that they have already beaten Glasgow twice in their pool and were ranked four places higher after that stage. Away wins in the quarter-final are hard to come by. This system recognises that and offers a huge incentive for success.
As a result of the revamp, should Leinster beat Wasps they will definitely be travelling to France as Clermont finished the pool stage as number one seed to Leinster’s fourth. If Toulon beat Clermont then, as the away winner, they are rewarded with the semi-final somewhere in the south of France.
The bigger issue surrounds having the knockout phase so soon after what is sure to be a physically punishing Six Nations. Prior to the restructure, there was a three-week gap which was a massive help to the clubs who contributed players to the international team.
Leinster and Glasgow will supply double digit numbers to the Irish and Scottish squads respectively while all the other quarter-finalists, bar Toulon, will also have to function without a number of their star players over the next two months.
Ideally, you would want to have all the clubs in top form and with their strongest line-ups available when the quarter-finals come around. That is unlikely to happen as the intensity of the Six Nations is sure to throw up a number of casualties.
The difference between playing within two weeks of that tournament rather than three is huge. As a result, Munster and Leinster won’t field their first choice side between now and those games against Toulouse and Wasps which is hardly ideal. No doubt all the club coaches will be watching events unfold with fingers crossed that all their key players return in one piece.
With 12 wins from their last 13 games, Munster are in a really good place and the home quarter-final advantage against Toulouse will now serve as a huge incentive for all of those not required by Joe Schmidt over the next two months to maintain standards.
t’s been a hugely demanding period for Munster with Rassie Erasmus echoing that fact after the win over Racing last weekend. ‘It’s been eight tough weeks especially playing three straight European games.’
It certainly has but it has also been extremely rewarding.
Factor in the emotional roller-coaster that has been part and parcel of every working day since the devastating events of last October and you sense that Munster could do with a break to recharge the batteries.
The fact that CJ Stander, Conor Murray, Donnacha Ryan, Peter O’Mahony, Keith Earls and, hopefully, a few more are likely to be absent for the next phase of PRO12 games is no bad thing so long as momentum is maintained by those left at home. It also offers a chance for the likes of Darran Sweetnam to work his way back into contention after his knee injury.
On form you would have to fancy Munster coming through that quarter-final against Toulouse, especially in what is sure to be another sold out Thomond Park. How quickly things change. A depleted Connacht side really put it up to the former champions at the Stade Ernest Wallon last Sunday, despite being short key players in Bundee Aki and Ultan Dillane and beat them in round one in Galway.
Connacht were desperately unlucky not to advance and will rue conceding two tries and 14 points within the opening 18 minutes. To recover in the manner they did just shows the character within the squad, but their failure to manufacture a drop goal while camped in the Toulouse ‘22’ with time running out, cost them dearly.
Three more points and a losing bonus point would have seen them advance. Glasgow were similarly culpable the previous week against Munster. Is the drop goal becoming obsolete?
Likewise you would expect Saracens to beat Glasgow, especially if the Vunipola brothers and George Kruis recover from injury in time. That would set up a cracking semi-final between Mark McCall’s men and Munster at the Aviva Stadium. Practically the entire Glasgow team will be involved with Scotland over the next two months so that will prove a big challenge for Gregor Townsend.
Leinster will really fancy the opportunity of putting the record straight in their quarter-final after suffering two humiliating defeats to Wasps last season, particularly that 51- 10 drubbing in Coventry.
So much has changed since then and having the additional insight that Stuart Lancaster brings, with his encyclopaedic knowledge of all the English players, will also be a huge plus for Leo Cullen.
Leinster struggled at times against Castres last Friday but you have to factor in the major impact of losing both Johnny Sexton and Isa Nacewa, their two most experienced backs by far, to injury. The Leinster backline for the last 44 minutes, with the exception of Rob Kearney, were all 23 years of age or under.
To prevail in such circumstances, with Castres really up for the fight, augurs well for the future.
That immediate future will now depend on who is left standing when the squads assemble in eight weeks’ time.
