The changing face of betting could see on-course bookmakers suffer
Given how betting has developed in the past decade and continues to move forward, it is inevitable that even this great meeting will find it more difficult to attract punters into the track as the years go by.
Next week is vitally important to the course, the town of Cheltenham and to the surrounding area, but it is also crucial for High Street bookmakers, who are working harder than ever to attract business and build brand loyalty.
When they are winning, there must be a loser, and that is the on-course bookmakers, whose turnover will suffer.
The firms will all but fall over each other trying to coax the drifting punter into their shops for this week.
While their offers will not benefit the big players greatly, the small-figure returns and free bets cover the majority of punters’ bets — precisely those which the shops wish to attract.
This week, one firm is offering a free bet, to a maximum of €25/£25, to backers of the runner-up in every race at the Festival.
That’s a remarkable concession, one certain to have a significant uptake and, consequently, an impact on on-course action.
Considering the number of punters whose average bet will be below €25/£25, there is potential to capture a large slice of the week’s action.
And, although playing into the hands of the off-course firms, it’d be folly for all of those players not to take advantage of the offer.
There will be many short-priced runners at Cheltenham next week and punters who fall into the above category will not get rich backing them. And so the value may in taking them on just got better.
If you believe Douvan, Un De Sceaux, Limini, Vroum Vroum Mag and Thistlecrack will justify short odds in their respective targets and are happy to play at the prices, then backing them in singles is the right thing to do.
But the temptation to find an alternative now comes with a safety net.
It sounds blindingly obvious, but just as you should never back a horse each-way unless believing it can win, opposing the short-priced runners is pointless unless your selection has genuine claims to topple the favourite.
The money back should only be a bonus, not a reason to change your bet.
As well as special offers, enhanced place terms provide further reason for punters to go off-course for their bets. All of this — leaving aside the seismic impact the exchanges have had since their inception — leads to diminution of the on-course business.
The markets at Cheltenham are exposed to ante-post betting for a considerable period of time. Such betting enjoys an explosion in popularity at this time of year and as intended targets for horses become clear so, too, does the true shape of the market for each race.
The firms’ odds are strong and very accurate long before the tape rises for the Supreme Novices Hurdle which heralds the start of the madness.
With much of the betting done for small-stakes punters, again the upshot is a reduced requirement for punters to bring cash to the tracks, and another significant impact on the trade of the on-course bookmakers.
Of course, this applies not only to Cheltenham or the Aintree Grand National, but to all run-of-the-mill meetings throughout the year.
In such instances it is not ante-post betting, rather odds offered the night before a meeting.
Getting a decent bet on provides its own problem, particularly with one firm which does not allow their prices to be taken in their shops the night before — they are, remarkably, reserved for online punters only.
But, such is the rush to take advantage of the early prices, there’s a strong chance you have missed the boat if you are looking to have a bet on the day of the race.
That is the reality of how betting is changing.
It doesn’t take much to begin the restructuring of the market when they are initially priced up — the evidence of that can be seen by checking the ‘max bet’ allowance at three definite junctures: the night before, the morning of the race, and on the show.
It is weakest when first drawn up, strengthens after the first wave of interest, is quite well formed by the time the shops open in the morning, and at its strongest after the show comes up in the minutes before the off time.
By the last stage, liquidity on the exchanges is also at its peak.
At each stage of development, the firms gain confidence, and accept larger bets. When the markets are at their weakest — ante-post or early shows — everything is still fluid, and accepted bets at their most restricted.
Regardless of the bet sizes, however, they help to shape the market, particularly if placed on monitored accounts.
As one professional punter insists, the shops would offer prices a week in advance if it were possible. Early betting is, in general, corrective betting, pointing out the apparent errors in a firm’s early odds.
As a result, betting on the day of the race now requires a different degree of knowledge.
The prices are so close to their correct mark a new edge must be found to make punting profitable.
Thanks to the popularity of ante-post betting, Cheltenham is also becoming like that.
