Should Vautour be run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup?
Imagine for a moment that Vautour met the last fence in last month’s King George perfectly.
Imagine if the consequence of him doing so was that Cue Card’s late thrust in the final 50 yards was in vain.
Would there even be a debate about Vautour’s Festival target?
Of course not. He would be a certainty to pitch up in the Gold Cup on March 18.
The conventional wisdom in the immediate aftermath of the King George and in the weeks since is that Vautour ran out of petrol in the last 50 yards and that if he couldn’t stay three miles in Kempton he won’t last an extra two and a half furlongs at Cheltenham.
However, it seems harsh to suggest a horse nailed on the line having raced prominently throughout didn’t stay.
Take Cue Card out of the equation and Vautour is a 13-length winner of a King George and 6-4 favourite for the Gold Cup.
Going left handed will aid his cause at Cheltenham and last year he was a far better horse on better ground come March than he was the previous Christmas.
Who’s to say he won’t improve in a similar fashion this time around?
Vautour’s Cheltenham record also provides grounds for optimism. Willie Mullins’ charge is unbeaten in two visits to Prestbury Park and his performance last year, when he ran his rivals ragged in the JLT, was the most visually impressive display of the week.
When you throw these factors into the mix there’s sound reasons for believing Vautour would at the very least turn the tables on Cue Card.
And what of the other genuine contenders?
Don Poli made seriously heavy weather of winning a weak Lexus Chase. Don Cossack is zero from two at Cheltenham and struggled for long periods before crashing out of the King George. Road To Riches and Djakadam have both only been seen once this season and, while both won; neither faced a particularly searching examination.
The Ryanair Chase would of course be an easier race.
But where’s the glory in winning that? How many times would Vautour have to win it to be remembered as a great?
The harsh truth is that few outside of the horse’s connections will remember the identity of the 2016 Ryanair Chase winner in 10 or 20 years time.
It is of course possible that Vautour simply doesn’t stay over an extended trip but the evidence is not yet conclusive.
The only way to find out definitively is to let him take his chance in the biggest race of them all.
And if he doesn’t stay, the Ryanair Chase will still be there in 2017.
But at least we’ll know.
NO: King George suggests he won’t stay the trip, argues Tommy Lyons
With that exuberant display in the JLT Novices’ Chase Vautour produced what was, arguably, the performance of the meeting at last year’s Cheltenham Festival.
In pulling clear after being pushed hard for much of the race by the positively ridden Irish Saint, he gave every indication a step up in trip would be well within compass.
The result, immediately and inevitably, was promotion to the head of the market for this season’s Gold Cup.
On St Stephen’s Day, for the first time, he tackled three miles and, around Kempton’s flat track, wasn’t expected to be found wanting for stamina.
Ruby Walsh rode him as though he had no concerns and for two miles seven and a half furlongs all went well.
The horse was sent to the front a long way out, travelled strongly, and turned for home with all his rivals under pressure. Even after jumping the last, he looked booked for victory but, in a desperate finish, was unable to stave off the challenge of Cue Card.
No shame in the defeat, but what punters must determine is whether he was picked up by a dour stayer or the fuel tank emptied quickly.
The evidence suggests the latter.
Winner Cue Card had faded late in each of the two previous runnings of this race and, on this occasion, had been joined, two from home, by Don Cossack, who looked to be staying on best of all before his departure at the second-last.
It’s reasonable to point out Vautour will improve for quicker ground and going left-handed, while his record suggests he’ll be at his best in the spring.
Even allowing for those factors, three miles at Kempton and three-two-and-a-half around Cheltenham present very different tests.
Just a couple of months ago, we were talking of a vintage crop of staying chasers, dreaming of a Gold Cup for the ages. But much changes on a daily basis in this volatile sport.
We’ll have no defending champion, have doubts about Vautour’s stamina, concerns about Don Poli racing too lazily, and worries whether or not Don Cossack can bounce back from a workmanlike display.
In relative terms, this renewal may not take as much winning as once forecast, but stamina will be key.
Being better in himself and enjoying the ground and the track’s orientation won’t get Vautour home against rivals who will work to ensure staying power is a determining factor.
Should Djakadam turn up, it’s hard to believe Walsh won’t choose his proven stamina over Vautour’s ability.
The Ryanair Chase may not appeal as an alternative vehicle in which to flaunt Vautour’s brilliance but his King George defeat, albeit narrow, tells us it is the right one.
