Martin O’Neill’s Ireland at tipping point
That’s one way of putting it. Another would be to extend the mountain-climbing metaphor to include lead-lined boots, suits of armour and grand pianos carried on the back, a kind of ‘Guinness Book Of Records’ challenge that would render mission improbable and mission impossible almost indistinguishable.
Put it in more basic terms: with four games left after today’s fixtures — and taking as pre-ordained fact that Poland will beat Georgia and Germany will beat Gibraltar — a win for the Scots would leave Ireland in fourth place, six behind leaders Poland and five behind Germany and Scotland.
In contrast, if Ireland beat Scotland, the picture is radically altered. Now, they move up to third place, above the Scots, and — again assuming the other two group games go according to plan today — would be just three points behind leaders Poland and two behind the Germans.
All of which is by way of underlining the truth that today’s game at the Aviva Stadium is really the first defining test of Martin O’Neill’s tenure as manager of Ireland — and I say first, of course, because should they succeed in vanquishing the Scots, there will, as we have noted, be even bigger and more daunting examinations to come if they are to successfully negotiate the road to France 2016.
But what about the grim possibility that it could just as easily turn out to be the last defining test? O’Neill insisted earlier this week that, no matter what happens today, there will still be “twists and turns” before the qualifying race is run. But, to go back to those mountains for a moment, it’s hard to see how, even if Ireland were to put in a monumentally heroic effort in reclaiming lost ground, they still wouldn’t finish up arriving on the upper slopes only to see rival flags already waving gaily at the summit.
Irish football has experienced its unfair share of play-off drama over the years, dramatic final nights at the end of long campaigns when there could be no getting away from the death or glory reality of it all. Today is not one of those and yet it almost feels that way. Ireland might only be at the halfway stage of qualification but, given the yawning gulf between the implications of victory and defeat, the stakes could hardly be higher.
And not just in terms of whether the green shirts get to grace the green fields of France. Again, given we’re only at mid-point in proceedings, it seems almost absurd to be thinking about managerial succession but, already, you’ll hear people talking about defeat as, if not the definitive end of the road for O’Neill, then at least a signpost pointing ominously in that direction.
It’s interesting to study the current standings of the rival, ex-Celtic managers at the Aviva today. O’Neill bristled yesterday at the suggestion that Ireland’s campaign had stalled after three games, though it’s frankly hard to see how a return of one point from six in their last two games can be accurately described in any other way. Gordon Strachan, by contrast, is riding the crest of a wave of positive performances and good results, so much so that the SFA are already being asked about the prospect of his being given a contract extension.
Elsewhere in these pages today, Liam Brady makes a persuasive case for Strachan having already stolen a march on O’Neill on the international stage in the way that he has managed to stamp a clear imprint on his team. Part of that might have to do with the advantage he holds in terms of competitive matches as manager. Recall that Strachan took over from the sacked Craig Levine during the 2014 World Cup qualifying campaign and had to endure a baptism of fire — defeats against Wales and Serbia — before transformative home and away wins over Croatia set his team on a fresh course for the future, even if it came too late to qualify for Brazil.
Today is only O’Neill’s sixth competitive game as Ireland manager and he has lost only one of those games. Put that way, it seems all the more ludicrous, if not even slightly grotesque, to be talking about the possibility of his stewardship being on the line. Yet if O’Neill has discovered one point at which the international game starkly intersects with the club version, he knows so well, it’s how, on both fronts, the lifespan of the gaffer has drastically diminished over the years.
The FAI signed up Martin O’Neill on a one-shot deal, with the explicit brief of getting Ireland to France 2016. As a matter of principle, I would argue that, other than in exceptional circumstances — and, yes, I’m thinking here of shipping five against Cyprus and narrowly beating San Marino — international managers should be allowed to see out two shots at the target.
Indeed, Irish football history seems to bear out the wisdom of that propostion when you consider Mick McCarthy had not one but two failed campaigns behind him before leading his charges to the 2002 World Cup while Giovanni Trapattoni had, as you might remember, fallen just short of qualification for the 2010 World Cup before he guided Ireland to Euro 2012. And let’s not forget either that Jack Charlton, the first manager to bring Ireland to the top table only managed to kick-start it all thanks to a huge favour from today’s visitors to Dublin on a miraculous night in Sofia.
All of which, of course, is getting somewhat ahead of ourselves, with kick-off against Scotland still some hours away and, with it, the possibility of a victory which would, for the duration of the summer break at least, banish the dark clouds.
It’s over to the players now. If Irish football is indeed at another tipping point, it’s up to the boys in green to be men in green and — we can but hope — ensure that today’s game comes to be regarded as the end of the beginning not the beginning of the end.
I’m no cosmologist, me, but I feel pretty sure that I’ve stumbled on concrete proof that the world is divided into Blatter and Anti-Blatter.
The evidence for the latter can be found at Cabinteely FC in south County Dublin today where the club’s mini-World Cup reaches its climax. Running for the last10 days and playing host to over 1,100 hundred young boys and girls assigned to 108 teams, the 26th staging of this inspiring community event suggests that if trickle-up was a stronger force than trickle-down, the very top of the football pyramid would be a lot prettier to behold.
Down here at the base, meanwhile, the spectacle is simply a joy to behold, the Cabinteely club, in conjunction with local sponsors, advertisers and, most of all, an extremely hard-working volunteer corps, making the running of a tournament of considerable complexity seem exactly like what it so successively provides – child’s play.
And, of course, there are many other clubs around the country doing no less sterling work, if not quite on the same scale as this.
To them all, I doff my cap.
I should, however, declare a personal interest here:
my seven-year-old daughter’s team, the mighty Niger, are up against the no less mighty Libya in a semi-final in Cabinteely today, leaving me with just one small question: Should events conspire to see Niger eliminated in perhaps contentious circumstances, to whom do I need to speak about, um, compensation?
Answers on the back of a brown envelope, please.
