Euro 2016: 'There is good reason for optimism, and certainly far more than was the case at the 2012 finals'
Yes, we could certainly have been luckier, let’s put it that way, but, on closer examination, I think there is good reason for optimism, and certainly far more than was the case at the 2012 finals when we drew what were, for me, arguably, the three best teams in the whole competition — with Croatia coming close to eliminating Spain in the group stage before the latter prevailed and ultimately went on to beat Italy in the final.
That was virtually mission impossible for Ireland right from the start, especially considering that, four years ago, ours was already an aging panel, a problem compounded by the fact Giovanni Trapattoni made the decision to stick with the older players after losing the first game to Croatia, following which it became painfully clear they simply couldn’t cope with opposition of the calibre of Spain and Italy.
But that kind of superior quality, in my opinion, is simply not to be found in Group E of the 2016 finals.
The first, most critical game, is against Sweden, a team which, like ourselves, got to the finals through the play-offs. I actually watched both of their games against Denmark, and Sweden were hugely dependent on their one outstanding player, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, to get them through. His brilliance from free-kicks, coupled with some of things he did in general play, were effectively the difference between the two teams.
Take him out of the equation and Sweden are a pretty ordinary side.
Avoiding defeat in the first game is obviously very important but I would have thought if we are going to win one of the three matches, our best chance of doing so would be against the Swedes.
What’s important, in terms of the whole group, is that we don’t get distracted by the names and reputations of the countries we’ve drawn but, instead, closely analyse what they’ve really got and how best we can go about beating them.
Belgium are a case in point. Nominally ranked number one in the world and bristling with talented players they might be, yet they still couldn’t get the better of Wales in their qualifying campaign, drawing one game and losing the other.
Or go back to the World Cup finals in Brazil last year, when the Belgians ground their way through the group stage and only narrowly beat the USA after extra-time, before going out to Argentina in the quarter-finals.
A lot of people had them down as potential finalists in that tournament, given the players they have in their team, but sometimes in football talented individuals don’t automatically translate into an equally formidable collective.
You look at the likes of Courtois, Kompany, De Bruyne, Benteke and Hazard and, yes, it’s quite a frightening line-up but, come the summer, Belgium have to play Italy first and, if they don’t win that game, the so-called ‘golden generation’ could be a touch tarnished and nervous when they come to play us in the next one.
Of course, you can never be entirely sure of what you’re going to get from the Italians, but my feeling is that their current squad is pretty ordinary compared to teams they’ve had in the past.
That said, they did go through their group unbeaten — and with Croatia, Norway and Bulgaria in there, it wasn’t a bad group — so to that extent, Antonio Conte has done a very good job.
But, again, closer examination suggests that in attack — where, historically, Italy have produced some superb number 10s and strikers — they are something of a blunt instrument.
Southampton’s Graziano Pelle was actually their top scorer in qualifying with three goals, so we’re not exactly talking about a Riva, a Rossi, a Baggio or a Totti here.
Defensively, however, they are very strong and, as with so many Italian sides down the years, their overall mentality will be good, as Ireland should know well by now, having drawn them in the World Cup finals of 1990 and 1994, as well as at the last Euros.
So Martin O’Neill and his players will certainly have a good idea of what they’re likely to come up against in the final group game in Lille on June 22.
But, to go back to the beginning, you really can’t overstate the importance of getting something — preferably a win — out of the first game against Sweden at the Stade de France on Monday, June 13.
And the good news is I think Ireland can head to France and go into that first game in a really positive frame of mind, especially if we have all our key players fit.
We’re a young team, an improving team and a team that’s very much together now — as we proved against Germany and in the play-off against Bosnia — and, for that reason, and taking into account the opposition we’ll face in the group, I would fancy Ireland to progress to the knockout stage as one of the four successful third-place teams.
No early Christmas present for Arsenal
In contrast to Ireland’s fortunes on Saturday, there can be no disguising the fact that Arsenal got the most punishing draw possible in the Champions League yesterday when they were paired with Barcelona in the round of 16.
If it was just about enjoying the spectacle of seeing the most entertaining team in the world close up, then Arsenal fans would be entitled to look forward with some relish to witnessing Messi, Neymar and Suarez at the Emirates.
But when it comes to calling the outcome of the tie, especially with the second leg taking place at the Nou Camp, you’d have to say that the balance of probability is about 70-30 in favour of the defending champions.
Can I give offer any grounds at all for optimism to Arsenal supporters who were probably tearing their hair out yesterday?
Well, yes, I can: we’re an exciting team going forward too — especially if Arsene Wenger has all his options available — and Barcelona’s strong suit is not their defence.
Their football is based on ball retention and what they do with it, and sometimes that gives teams a chance against them.
There was a perfect example just at the weekend when they lost a two-goal lead late on to Deportivo and ended up drawing the game 2-2.
So if Sanchez is fit, Ozil maintains his form and Giroud his scoring rate, and the team is still playing in February with the confidence they’re showing at the moment, then there are some reasons for optimism.
But, having said all that, the big problem for Arsenal — as for every other team who face Barcelona — is how you can possibly put a stop to Messi, Suarez, Neymar and Iniesta. And there’s no easy solution, if there is one at all, to that challenge.
Of the other Premier League sides, Chelsea got a tough draw too, against PSG, but for all the problems Jose Mourinho’s side have had this season, I still think that tie is finely poised.
On paper, Manchester City got the most favourable outcome, drawing Dynamo Kiev.
But I still wouldn’t be at all complacent about their chances for the simple reason that you never quite know which City team will turn up.
It’s hard to trust City. There seems to be perennial speculation about the manager’s position at the Etihad and, for all the stellar individual talent Manuel Pellegrini has at his disposal, I just don’t think the club is in a good enough place to go on and win the Champions League this season.
