Wednesday, January 21, 2009
WITH only three teams already guaranteed qualification to the knockout stages, and just one of those assured a lucrative home draw, there is still so much to play for in this weekend’s final round of Heineken Cup pool games.
Up to the point when referee Alain Rolland blows the final whistle at around 4.40pm at the Rec on Sunday where Bath entertain Toulouse, players, management and supporters all over Europe will be on tenterhooks as the final pieces of the quarter final jigsaw fall into place.
That sense of drama is what makes the Heineken Cup the superlative competition that it is.
The next few days will prove anxious for a number of clubs, not least Toulouse and Leinster. As one of the tournaments ever presents, Toulouse have only missed the knockout stage three times in 13 seasons. They are in the danger zone once again after that extraordinary game against Glasgow Warriors last Saturday. Bath will prove no walkovers either and would have won their opening contest at the Stade Ernest Wallon but for a penalty by David Skrela with literally the last kick of the game.
Leinster, despite a brave showing in testing circumstances at Twickenham, will be pushed all the way by a game Edinburgh outfit especially if all the injury doubts surrounding their front five pose selection problems. In the circumstances they are very fortunate to be offered an eight-day turnaround for their final pool game. Cardiff Blues, for example, have only six days to regroup after their bruising clash against Gloucester at Kingsholm. It was inevitable that Malcolm O’Kelly would be brought to task for his stamp on Phil Vickery; his disciplinary hearing is another unwelcome distraction for Michael Cheika in what is going to be a very busy week.
Edinburgh were hammered 52-6 in the RDS in September’s Magners League clash at a time when Leinster were playing some scintillating rugby. That form has deserted them since with tries hard to come by. Given that they have to score a four try win bonus to guarantee progression to the quarter-finals it will be interesting to see if Cheika will persist with Isa Nacewa at out-half despite all the evidence pointing to the fact that he is not suited to the role. If he does and Leinster fail to quality he places himself in a very precarious position.
It is inconceivable that Leinster could go out at this stage given the excellent start they made in their pool and the playing resources at their disposal. Understandably they were one of the fancied teams at the outset of the tournament and must live up to that billing on Sunday. Living in the shadow of Munster’s achievements over the last eight years must be very difficult for a succession of Leinster squads. I can only imagine what it was like for them sitting in their team room in a London hotel last Friday night watching as Paul O’Connell’s men dismantled high flying Sale Sharks with that six try demolition.
They now have to be extremely professional in their approach to this game, pick a side that is 100% fit and go about extinguishing the running threat that Edinburgh will bring. That disastrous performance and defeat in Castres has put them in this position but they have a sufficient number of strong personalities in their dressing room to negotiate a successful outcome to this challenge. I expect that they will still be in this tournament come Sunday night.
Munster’s performance last Friday was such that no team will want to end up with the poisoned chalice of a quarter-final at Thomond Park. That is the target Munster must now set themselves as they embark on yet another sojourn to the south of France. For Montauban to host the reigning champions in their inaugural season in the Heineken cup is a huge honour and one that is sure to extract a performance from them. They will look back to their tournament debut in Limerick last October and realise that it was a game they could have won. Munster as they did against the Sharks must curb that enthusiasm early on with points on the board.
The challenge for Tony McGahan and his management team is to make sure that Munster are as mentally tuned in to the demands of this contest as they were last Friday. The financial trappings that attach to a home quarter-final are too big to pass up. Toulouse have built their magnificent facilities on the revenue generated from so many home quarter-finals over the years. Once you hit the semi-final and final stage all the gate receipts go directly to ERC rugby.
THE potential for a home draw in a semi-final is purely down to who comes out of the hat first and should Munster progress to that stage it will beinteresting to see where they would host it. My understanding is that ERC would be happy for it to be held in the RDS with Thomond Park the likely venue should Leinster progress that far (as in theory semi-finals must be held in neutral venues). It would be interesting, therefore, if the two sides were drawn together at the penultimate hurdle. The only certainty is that Croke Park would not be available. There is also the prospect that should Munster progress that far and get a home draw against opposition with a big fan base that they could look at the option to take the fixture to the UK in an effort to maximise revenue.
All of this, of course, is still academic and dependent on Munster getting the right result on Saturday. However this squad will know better than most the benefits that attach to a home draw especially in light of the limited preparation time available before the quarter final due to the demands of the Six Nations.
Should last Friday’s free-flowing interactive game between backs and forwards be reproduced at the Stade De Sapiac then that all important four try bonus point is capable of being achieved. It’s important however that the foundations are put in place up front and that the game is played in opposition territory early on in order to quash any aspirations the hosts may have of producing a shock.
Somehow I don’t see that happening and the only uncertainty the Munster players should face on the flight home on Saturday night will be who their opposition will be at Thomond Park on the second week in April.
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